Re: [113attendees] IETF 113 Update: 2022-02-10

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

There are these many forecasting curves in USA at this URLs, but they 
predict only for the next 4 weeks or so.

https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/

Rather, I look for a 3-month forecast of new cases, for Philadelphia. 
In particular, to learn whether or not Philadelphia at the end of July 
is on a descent, a low, or on an ascent of the wave.  In a most desired 
case, it would be on a descent or a low.

Alex

Le 05/04/2022 à 13:50, Alexandre Petrescu a écrit :
> 
> 
> Le 18/02/2022 à 19:31, John C Klensin a écrit :
>> Alex,
>>
>> I won't repeat my previous comment about being able to
>> accurately produce the future.  Translating them into more
>> statistical terms, those are issues about predictive models
>> given unpredictable issues that can introduce near-step
>> functions (e.g., appearance of new variants with new properties)
>> and exogenous variates that are not part of the model.  But, if
>> you are working with R to try to build a predictive model, two
>> suggestions:
>>
>> (1) You probably do not want to interpolate.  Think about some
>> sort of regression or other curve-fitting procedure, perhaps
>> with moving averages.  You would need to figure out whether you
>> have enough data to make that meaningful.
>>
>> (2) Once you have a predictive model with which you are happy,
>> please try doing some predictions of accuracy (not just
>> projected values), probably using a retrospective sensitivity
>> testing approach.   In other words, set the most recent data
>> aside, repeat the analysis, and then see how well the model
>> would have predicted those recent data.
>>
>> I can't speak for others, but I look forward to a report on what
>> you discover.
> 
> I keep working on it.
> 
> This is what I discovered for now.
> 
> - there are no publicly available data predicting covid waves, or I cant 
> find.  It might be impossible to predict the next wave.
> 
> The one prediction I learned of at IETF is at 
> https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/COVID-Prognose-Konsortium-2022.html#februar-2022 
> 
> It is a short-term estimation on the current wave form, not a prediction 
> on a long term of waves.  This short-term estimation can be done rapidly 
> on Excel tool of Microsoft.
> 
> - a colleague indicated in private that what I am trying to predict (the 
> time of the peek of a next wave) might be akin to 'machine learning'. 
> That is such a huge topic that I wouldnt delve into, but I am open to 
> collaborating.
> 
> - I learned to agree that, as you suggsted, what I need is a sort of 
> 'regression', or a 'curve-fitting' procedure, rather than 
> 'interpolation'.  The 'R' open source software package has a plethora of 
> these functions to call, and my calculators have some simpler too.
> 
> - a very naïve (sorry!) applying of some of the simplest of these 
> 'regressions' on the few available data, seems to be showing to me that, 
> locally, the frequency of waves might be increasing, i.e. a little more 
> peeks per year.  It is not about dangerosity of covid, but about how 
> many peaks.
> 
> - I am looking retrospecitvely at how meeting planning happened between 
> Nov. 2021 and March 2022, and whether predicting the next wave of covid 
> was of any help whatsoever, or not.  In that time period several 
> predictions about covid evolution were made, and a few surprises shown 
> up.  I wouldnt have expected the covid wave to be on a rise in Vienna at 
> the end of March - it was a surprise.
> 
> - for me personally, this kind of longer term prediction of the time of 
> a next wave of covid is very important to answer daily life - both at 
> work and at home - questions in planning for next few months.
> 
> That's what I discovered for now.
> 
> Alex
> 
> 
>>
>>     john
>>
>> p.s. there is a famous story about the use of a System Dynamics
>> model to predict, based on 19th Century data, the traffic in
>> Paris would be almost completely paralyzed by the middle of the
>> 20th.   You might find it informative vis-a-vis the type of
>> projections you are trying to make.
>>
>>
>>
>> --On Friday, February 18, 2022 18:51 +0100 Alexandre Petrescu
>> <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>
>>> Thanks for the note about the R script.
>>>
>>> I would like to say a few things about it, if permitted on
>>> this list.
>>>
>>> I think you mean the R mathematics package, and not the R like
>>> in R_0 of epidemics.  I think I saw R on my windows.
>>>
>>> For the R mathematics package, I wonder whether they have a
>>> freely available function to interpolate very simply, maybe
>>> too naïvely, but still a valuable try when nothing else might
>>> be available.
>>>
>>> This could be used to predict the next peak of a wave.
>>>
>>> For example, given the sequence of distances between Austrian
>>> peaks 8, 4, 8, 3 (from outbreak.info), what is the next
>>> distance until the next peak?
>>>
>>> That potential R interpolation function, applied to that
>>> Austrian data, could be valuable help in predicting more
>>> precisely than the current predictions that can be visible at
>>> https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus
>>> /COVID-Prognose-Konsortium-2022.html#februar-2022
>>>
>>> The ICU Intensivpflege graph gives today a prognosis for March
>>> 2nd, as illustrated by the small gray areas at the right of
>>> the graph:
>>> Kapazitätsvorschau Intensivpflege - 15.02.2022
>>>
>>> But a prediction by applying an R interpolation function on
>>> the sequence 8,4,8,3 would give a prediction of when the next
>>> peak would appear in the next several months.
>>>
>>> Probably this would predict that the next peak would be in 7
>>> months time (I dont know?), which means peak in August 2022.
>>> August is much far away than March.
>>>
>>> This kind of prognosis does not tell the details of the wave
>>> shape, but just its peak.  But it is known that these are
>>> waves, not arbitrary shapes.
>>>
>>> Alex
>>>
>>> Le 18/02/2022 à 07:41, Dr Eberhard W Lisse a écrit :
>>>> Jay,
>>>>
>>>> Your approach is the correct one from a medical perspective
>>>> and the same I am taking.
>>>>
>>>> I took the additional step of separating my flight to Europe
>>>> from the flight (ticket) to Vienna, the former with Ethiopian
>>>> Airlines who are very experienced with Covid and have given
>>>> us no trouble when we had to reschedule some visitors doe to
>>>> Omicron.  The latter is with Austrian Airlines and so cheap
>>>> that if the meeting was cancelled and the airline were to
>>>> prove difficult (which I doubt) I could absorb the loss.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> That said, one must indeed differentiate between the pure
>>>> transmission rate which in Austria is quite, and in Namibia
>>>> and New Zealand for example is low (but rising in the
>>>> latter), the hospital utilization rate, the ICU utilization
>>>> rate and of course the death rate.
>>>>
>>>> The death rate in countries with developed health care
>>>> systems is fortunately quite low due to a multitude of
>>>> factors including the experience we have gained over the last
>>>> two years, and easy accessibility to care.
>>>>
>>>> The rolling 7 day (new infection) incidence averaged per
>>>> 100000 is the traditional way of looking at, and comparing
>>>> it.  The Johns Hopkins University publishes a continuously
>>>> updated data set which is widely used and I have a little R
>>>> script which produces the enclosed images (for some countries
>>>> I am interested in).
>>>>
>>>> For planning purposes the hospital utilization and ICU rates
>>>> are better figures and this is what is now being used more
>>>> commonly like in Austria.
>>>>
>>>> In addition there is indeed the pressure by the populace who
>>>> are fed up with the intrusions into what they perceive as
>>>> personal freedom and who believe their health care systems
>>>> can take care of them if they get it, in particular
>>>> vaccination breakthroughs which are perceived as usually
>>>> being mild.
>>>>
>>>> I can understand to a (very) small extend the former, but
>>>> most certainly do not agree with it, and leave aside whether
>>>> the latter is true (probably) and at what cost.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Now, what does that mean for travelers?
>>>>
>>>> There still is high transmission in Austria, so the risk of
>>>> contracting Covid is a reality.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> That is what needs to be considered when traveling back to a
>>>> country where health care is less developed/available.
>>>> Never mind that the airlines may deny boarding of infected
>>>> passengers, so one should cater for that, as well.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I, myself, will continue to abide strictly by masking,
>>>> disinfection, and social distancing.  And I assume/propose
>>>> that the ground rules of the meeting reflect that, such as
>>>> checker board seating, temperature taking at the entrance and
>>>> requiring the (correct) wearing of masks.
>>>>
>>>> I, myself, will not do daily testing, unless of course asked
>>>> to do so by the organizers, but as I want to see how the
>>>> Everybody Gargles process works (it is free, after all), I'll
>>>> do it on the day of arrival and (perhaps) the morning of
>>>> departure.
>>>>
>>>> greetings, el
>>>>
>>>> On 2022-02-17 23:53 , Jay Daley wrote:
>>>>>> On 18/02/2022, at 10:35 AM, Carsten Bormann <[e-mail]>
>>>>>> wrote: On 17.  Feb 2022, at 19:57, Jay Daley
>>>>>> <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The good news that may encourage people to book, as others
>>>>>>> have already noted, is that the rules in Austria change
>>>>>>> from 5 March.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Good news?  I'm not so sure.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It seems the previous carefully designed science-based
>>>>>> prevention regimes are being thrown to a populistic bonfire
>>>>>> of "freedom day" paroles.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This mass delusion may make traveling and meeting in person
>>>>>> way too dangerous again.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm registered for onsite, and I don't have all the
>>>>>> data yet, but at the moment everything looks like I'll
>>>>>> have to reconsider.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> While there is indeed considerable political pressure to
>>>>> open up, my reading is that these decisions are still being
>>>>> made on a rational basis.  It appears clear that omicron
>>>>> waves in a well vaccinated society are relatively fast, burn
>>>>> themselves out and result in relatively few deaths or
>>>>> serious injuries with the majority having mild symptoms at
>>>>> the most.  Austria's omicron wave started on
>>>>> approximately 1 Jan and peaked on approximately 2 Feb.
>>>>>
>>>>> On the basis of that risk assessment and taking into account
>>>>> that I am in a risk group because of my medical history, I
>>>>> am participating in person .  (The meeting would function
>>>>> just as well without me). Of course each of our
>>>>> circumstances and personal risk assessments are different so
>>>>> we all make our own decisions here and I respect anyone who
>>>>> chooses not to travel for theirs.
>>>>>
>>>>> Jay
>>>>>
>>>>
>>
>>
>