Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast
Alexandre Petrescu <alexandre.petrescu@gmail.com> Thu, 30 December 2021 10:06 UTC
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To: lionel.morand@orange.com, "6gip@ietf.org" <6gip@ietf.org>
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From: Alexandre Petrescu <alexandre.petrescu@gmail.com>
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Subject: Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast
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Thank you very much! I will refer to the table you posted. Indeed the stds show a slower growth in generations. By it, one could expect the first 6G specs published and approved (term?) at 3GPP maybe in 2032. Because of this sequence of first specs at 3GPP: 1999 3G, 2008 4G, 2019 5G. This is indeed different than my speculation of dates of various deployment announcements - very approximative, based on personal rememberings. That says 6G and 7G would be trialled before 2030, following an acceleration between generations. It might be wrong. Also, a little detail about what happened between 2G and 3G, when 3GPP did not exist. I think 3GPP specified indeed 3G, but not 2.5G (GPRS, EDGE). I think these were specified by ETSI. If true, I am looking for ETSI dates of publication of first 2G, GPRS and EDGE standards. Just for information. Alex Le 28/12/2021 à 10:32, lionel.morand@orange.com a écrit : > Bonjour Alexandre, > > For a more accurate forecast, you should consider standard releases > (3GPP/IUT) rather than announced commercial rollouts (for which some > of them were kind of “fake news”, i.e. claiming being 4G whereas it > was only 3G+, same for 5G). > > For 3GPP, it is important to check the exact content of each > release. > > Here is a brief summary for 3GPP: > > 5G > > > > Release 16 > > > > 2020-07-03 (SA#88-e) > > > > Phase 2 > > Release 15 > > > > 2019-03-22 (SA#83) > > > > Phase 1 (New radio and http-based core) > > 4G > > > > Release 14 > > > > 2017-03-10 (SA#75) > > > > Release 13 > > > > 2015-12-11 (SA#70) > > > > Release 12 > > > > 2014-09-17 (SA#65) > > > > Release 11 > > > > 2012-09-12 (SA#57) > > > > Release 10 > > > > 2011-03-23 (SA#51) > > > > Release 9 > > > > 2009-12-10 (SA#46) > > > > Release 8 > > > > 2008-12-11 (SA#42) > > > > New radio and new Diameter core > > 3G > > > > Release 7 > > > > 2007-03-15 (SA#35) > > > > Release 6 > > > > 2005-03-17 (SA#27) > > > > Release 5 > > > > 2002-03-14 (SA-#15) > > > > Introduction of SIP-based IP Multimedia system > > Release 4 > > > > 2001-03-22 (SA-#11) > > > > Release 2000 > > > > Release 1999 > > > > 1999-12-17 (SA-#6) > > > > UMTS > > > > 1999-02-12 (SMG-#28) > > > > New Radio > > Therefore, you can see that there are: > > 9 years between 3G and 4G > > 11 years between 4G and 5G > > What is true is that discussions on the next generation start sooner > and sooner generation after generation. > > My2Cts, > > Lionel > > Orange Restricted > > *De :* 6gip <6gip-bounces@ietf.org> *De la part de* Alexandre > Petrescu *Envoyé :* lundi 27 décembre 2021 21:04 *À :* 6gip@ietf.org > *Objet :* [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast > > Hi, 6GIP, > > I did recently a small research of when the various generations (2G, > 3G, etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to > make a forecast. > > 2G - 1991, operator Radiolinja in Finland > > 3G - 2005, operator Tre ('3') in Italy > > 4G - 2015, various operators such as SFR and Orange in France > > 5G - 2020, operator SFR in France > > (the precise dates, places and status of deployment, such as trial or > public, are approximate and indeed debatable). > > By this logic, it seems there is an acceleration between generations. > The difference between generations was: 14 years, 10 years, 5 > years. > > The forecast is that 6G would be expected earlier than 2025, and 7G > before 2030. > > What do you think? > > Alex > > _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ > > Ce message et ses pieces jointes peuvent contenir des informations > confidentielles ou privilegiees et ne doivent donc pas etre diffuses, > exploites ou copies sans autorisation. Si vous avez recu ce message > par erreur, veuillez le signaler a l'expediteur et le detruire ainsi > que les pieces jointes. Les messages electroniques etant susceptibles > d'alteration, Orange decline toute responsabilite si ce message a ete > altere, deforme ou falsifie. Merci. > > This message and its attachments may contain confidential or > privileged information that may be protected by law; they should not > be distributed, used or copied without authorisation. If you have > received this email in error, please notify the sender and delete > this message and its attachments. As emails may be altered, Orange is > not liable for messages that have been modified, changed or > falsified. Thank you. >
- [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast Alexandre Petrescu
- Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast lionel.morand
- Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast Alexandre Petrescu
- Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast Rex Buddenberg
- Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast John Grant