Re: [Asrg] Statistical Analysis shows SPF should work Pretty Well

Yakov Shafranovich <research@solidmatrix.com> Fri, 13 June 2003 10:45 UTC

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To: Vernon Schryver <vjs@calcite.rhyolite.com>, asrg@ietf.org
From: Yakov Shafranovich <research@solidmatrix.com>
Subject: Re: [Asrg] Statistical Analysis shows SPF should work Pretty Well
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Date: Fri, 13 Jun 2003 01:48:56 -0400

At 08:49 PM 6/12/2003 -0600, Vernon Schryver wrote:

> > From: mengwong@dumbo.pobox.com (Meng Weng Wong)
>
> > ...
> > Conclusion 1: aol, hotmail, and yahoo have successfully implemented
> > outbound antispam technology, ie. ways to ensure that only humans sign
> > up for their accounts, or limits on per-account outbound message volume.
>
>Success is certainly is fleeting.  See
>   http://www.google.com/search?q=hotmail+dav
>   http://news.google.com/news?q=hotmail+dav
>   http://www.vnunet.com/News/1141514

This also appeared on SlashDot story 
(http://yro.slashdot.org/yro/03/06/08/0257203.shtml)

>I've also seen recent reports from usually reliable sources that
>Microsoft's account creation mechanism has been "scripted."

By contrast Yahoo is employing a Turing test process to test sign ups. I 
wonder if Hotmail would use such process, would that reduce the problem? 
Probably not, as long as the WebDAV facility is turned on.

>A summmary of all of that is that in recent weeks spammers have been
>significant spam through Hotmail systems.
>
>
>This goes to show that questions (not just statements) about whether
>characteristics of spam (or spam defenses) occur some of the time or
>most of the time should be view critically.  Measurements of spam
>can be useful for showing that a characteristic (practically?) always
>or never occurs in spam or that a tactic of spammers or spam defenses
>always or never works.  Concluding much from a measurement that
>says "X happens 90%" (or 9%) is often an error.
>

This is also true for the underlying assumption that is discussed on Wong's 
webpage regarding using transient failure codes (4xx) to stop spammers.

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