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Re: [Cfrg] Fwd: I-D Action: draft-yonezawa-pairing-friendly-curves-01.txt

Peter Gutmann <pgut001@cs.auckland.ac.nz> Tue, 02 April 2019 01:09 UTC

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From: Peter Gutmann <pgut001@cs.auckland.ac.nz>
To: denis bider <denisbider.ietf@gmail.com>, John Mattsson <john.mattsson@ericsson.com>
CC: CFRG <cfrg@irtf.org>
Thread-Topic: [Cfrg] Fwd: I-D Action: draft-yonezawa-pairing-friendly-curves-01.txt
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Date: Tue, 02 Apr 2019 01:09:12 +0000
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Subject: Re: [Cfrg] Fwd: I-D Action: draft-yonezawa-pairing-friendly-curves-01.txt
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denis bider <denisbider.ietf@gmail.com> writes:

>When billions of USD are being invested into research by people who expect a
>pay off, we could entertain a prediction that they're 90% likely to fail, but
>a prediction that they're 99.9% likely to fail seems overly confident.

That's actually what the fusion graph you posted is showing, initially there
was a spike in funding and progress appeared to be following either the
"accelerated" or "aggressive" path.  Then after the initial enthusiasm died
out due to little progress being made, the funding dried up as well and it
dropped to below "never" levels.

Currently we're at the same "spike in funding" stage for quantum computers.
Little progress is being made.

(Going from 2 qubits to 70-odd qubits in twenty years isn't progress, it's
just more refined experimentation when you look at the sort of system that'd
be needed to pose a threat to crypto).

Peter.

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