Re: COVID Resource Matching

[Spencer Dawkins at IETF <[e-mail]>]

Top posting, just to say, very interesting!

Best,

Spencer

On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 8:54 AM Phillip Hallam-Baker <[e-mail]>
wrote:

> TL;DR;
>
> We are in the middle of a global pandemic. Hospitals and healthcare
> providers round the world are running short on supplies. Maker
> communities and irregular engineering efforts are capable of meeting those
> needs. With the economy shut down there is an urgent requirement for an
> alternative infrastructure to match supply and demand. This community has
> multiple platforms that could quickly establish such a platform.
>
> *The long version*
>
> COVID-19 is turning into the long feared global pandemic. Even with the
> current measures in place we are looking at a global death toll
> unprecedented in modern times. COVID-19 is nothing like flu. Like heart
> attacks influenza deaths are merely the final cause that kills an already
> very sick patient. COVID-19 has already killed thousands of healthy people
> who would otherwise have lived for decades.
>
> With almost 200 governments in the world it is inevitable that at least
> some are going to get their response to COVID-19 completely wrong. But as
> the contagion spreads it is beginning to become apparent that no response
> was sufficient.
>
> Left unchecked, COVID-19 will kill millions. Officials who were issuing
> the usual platitudes urging calm and complacency less than a week ago are
> ordering schools to be shut. We are now at the first stage of emergency
> measures and we should expect a full mobilization to follow in many
> countries with hotels being commandeered and turned into makeshift
> quarantine and hospital facilities.
>
> In the current circumstances there are three priorities:
>
>    - Slow the spread of the virus
>    - Mitigate the effects
>    - Maintain morale
>
> The need for the third priority was a lesson learned from WWII. Fear and
> depression can easily overwhelm a population that is unable to go about its
> normal routine.
>
> Telling people to self-isolate is one thing, persuading them to remain
> self-isolated is another. COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of modern
> supply chains. Westerners are not used to seeing empty shelves in the
> supermarket. And the same supply chains that are failing to keep the
> supermarkets stocked are failing to supply the hospitals and health care
> workers.
>
> The media has been focused on a small number of supply issues. Principally
> the lack of ventilators and face masks. This has naturally led to 'open
> source' efforts to meet these demands. But this presents a coordination
> problem. There are people with the knowledge needed to design the
> ventilators, there are people with the resources to build them and we
> anticipate that there will soon be health care workers with the desperate
> need for them. How do we bring them together without stalling the process
> with bureaucratic inertia?
>
> Every nation has its foundation myths and one of the foundation myths of
> Britain is how we MacGyvered our way through WWII. My grandfather was a
> scavenger on an airbase in Lincolnshire. It was US logistics that won the
> war of course. But MacGyvering is how we survived.
>
> I was reminded of this when a friend remarked that he had actually worked
> with the inventor of the positive air pressure ventilator and the early
> devices were actually very primitive and built with commonplace materials.
> So I reached out to my local makerspace to ask which of the various open
> source ventilator efforts had critical mass and could make use of his
> skills.
>
> That was 12 hours ago. At this point we have a half dozen people working
> on the ventilator problem and another dozen looking into making masks. And
> these are people with serious engineering and fabrication skills with CNC,
> metalworking, electronics etc. shops available.
>
> This immediately set me thinking. If that is what one makerspace is
> capable of in a few hours, what can we do with all the makerspaces? And how
> can we make use of all the people sitting at home trying to think of things
> to do?
>
> There are tens of millions of homes with sewing machines. How many masks
> could just a small fraction of those turn out if we know what to make them
> from? Do coffee filters work? Are there better options?
>
> Put enough minds to work and any problem is solvable. Ventlators require
> trained personnel to operate them of course. But how much training is
> essential? How can we use untrained volunteers to extend the reach of those
> with scarce skills?
>
> And this made me realize that the real point of building an open source
> ventilator is not necessarily the thing in itself but as a symbol of what
> is achievable.
>
> In the short run, governments are not going to be able to acknowledge let
> alone meet every need. They will gradually catch up however and at some
> time we are going to see manufacturing facilities commandeered as well. But
> the government workers are going to face the exact same problem.
>
> So here is the challenge: We need an electronic scoreboard that can help
> match resources to needs. And this is going to require substantial
> resources, probably a team of a dozen or more people to run. Which means
> that we need a Google or a Microsoft or the like to step up. This is far
> beyond what a single person is going to be able to support it is going to
> grow too fast.
>