Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting cities
mike stJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net> Wed, 05 April 2017 13:49 UTC
Return-Path: <mstjohns@comcast.net>
X-Original-To: ietf@ietfa.amsl.com
Delivered-To: ietf@ietfa.amsl.com
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by ietfa.amsl.com (Postfix) with ESMTP id D9414127863 for <ietf@ietfa.amsl.com>; Wed, 5 Apr 2017 06:49:59 -0700 (PDT)
X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at amsl.com
X-Spam-Flag: NO
X-Spam-Score: -2.7
X-Spam-Level:
X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.7 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[BAYES_00=-1.9, DKIM_SIGNED=0.1, DKIM_VALID=-0.1, DKIM_VALID_AU=-0.1, FREEMAIL_FROM=0.001, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE=0.001, RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW=-0.7, RP_MATCHES_RCVD=-0.001, SPF_PASS=-0.001] autolearn=ham autolearn_force=no
Authentication-Results: ietfa.amsl.com (amavisd-new); dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=comcast.net
Received: from mail.ietf.org ([4.31.198.44]) by localhost (ietfa.amsl.com [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id JM9FEbSvg0_p for <ietf@ietfa.amsl.com>; Wed, 5 Apr 2017 06:49:58 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from resqmta-po-02v.sys.comcast.net (resqmta-po-02v.sys.comcast.net [IPv6:2001:558:fe16:19:96:114:154:161]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by ietfa.amsl.com (Postfix) with ESMTPS id E4B011250B8 for <ietf@ietf.org>; Wed, 5 Apr 2017 06:49:57 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from resomta-po-12v.sys.comcast.net ([96.114.154.236]) by resqmta-po-02v.sys.comcast.net with SMTP id vlJsciLSVRJJCvlJscbj36; Wed, 05 Apr 2017 13:49:56 +0000
DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=comcast.net; s=q20161114; t=1491400196; bh=p/INJqfEtw1dMSxiZkQ6l0y1ZRQR1N2QxJzPSLzP6/U=; h=Received:Received:Content-Type:Mime-Version:Subject:From:Date: Message-Id:To; b=N+WKlR783h6MXKknW204prLwQpRdwyK9yMtjEvodxY3EcmNRY4NnteHZwCylyAC3P lMf4j6x72gkY9Rvu/6URtd8l6vn0ZUf0vI5ewQdfh+dcyyLje/iXIXoOSJMJog2o9z KPsKbB4d2gRK8TPOxn3Kfm1gDqdjX0ZFaZNgp6F+cmvKMPzya2fFxirx9unZTBbl/e CRb1svoSdhUAw7W269k2j/cytrp4Vju3Ztutano4+gcRbhfHE3hxrOES/fbOXqtqm8 Xq0QF/2v9p3/lV/v5QEA9IABD05GwCQk7bBN/dK6YinbwfbqAnG+hMe5JCoIiLS4EM PHQaiV2AAApjg==
Received: from [IPv6:2601:152:4400:a2e0::1599] ([IPv6:2601:152:4400:a2e0::1599]) by resomta-po-12v.sys.comcast.net with SMTP id vlJqclXoldPKDvlJrcvko0; Wed, 05 Apr 2017 13:49:56 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
Mime-Version: 1.0 (1.0)
Subject: Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting cities
From: mike stJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net>
X-Mailer: iPad Mail (14D27)
In-Reply-To: <162603E4-DE07-495B-B3A6-9F58D03D8DF8@tzi.org>
Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2017 09:49:54 -0400
Cc: IETF <ietf@ietf.org>
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Message-Id: <620C9C4C-413C-439C-9109-B30BBAB921B1@comcast.net>
References: <149096990336.4276.3480662759931758139.idtracker@ietfa.amsl.com> <9fee9874-1306-07a2-a84a-4e09381a5336@cisco.com> <E67FDB14-9895-48E0-A334-167172D322DB@nohats.ca> <20170403152624.GA11714@gsp.org> <93404c29-78ba-ff9b-9170-f5f2a5389a31@gmail.com> <E068F01A-B720-4E7A-A60F-AA5BDA22D535@consulintel.es> <20170404181505.GA4004@localhost> <CAAQiQRcvu-BfBA_NEqZwXsHEn6ujpa2=w7P5Vu2f6GLXjKqkcA@mail.gmail.com> <5DDF7585-8722-4C21-B998-CFD06A44EFE2@tzi.org> <7B3FF839-022B-4D58-96F9-1DEDEE0DA3C5@comcast.net> <162603E4-DE07-495B-B3A6-9F58D03D8DF8@tzi.org>
To: Carsten Bormann <cabo@tzi.org>
X-CMAE-Envelope: MS4wfC9xo/RDgZ8oMz/6fyy7IMzOzkDoF1CFszDrSSYuX35m/uVILsaKuJvxJ6aMMRIIvY3crVH4fg3OXwmA19kBgmTf/qV1isK99XnobCDQne9NQlsYCHpS s9Ye9tqLGkoYMU4dTmKG7wYKd8gcVxxx9s50dMteEpM2fkKmN96Zr6JH2rJ/47UtGBe+OY5AgY5DXQ==
Archived-At: <https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/msg/ietf/kXCFNdTphkW18mIHplJRU8LpDDY>
X-BeenThere: ietf@ietf.org
X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.22
Precedence: list
List-Id: IETF-Discussion <ietf.ietf.org>
List-Unsubscribe: <https://www.ietf.org/mailman/options/ietf>, <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=unsubscribe>
List-Archive: <https://mailarchive.ietf.org/arch/browse/ietf/>
List-Post: <mailto:ietf@ietf.org>
List-Help: <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=help>
List-Subscribe: <https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf>, <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=subscribe>
X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2017 13:50:00 -0000
Let's try this one more time 27 deaths in 100 would be 27% 27 deaths in 1000 would be 2.7% 27 deaths in 10000 would be .27% 27 deaths in 100000 would be a rate of .027% The above are all expected deaths per year for the given population - so divide .027% by 52 to get .00051% per week. That's roughly the chance per individual to die during the week from murder. That's *my* risk for a week of the IETF and that's what should matter to each individual. If you take that and multiply it by the IETF population you get .005 expected deaths within the IETF for the entire week. Now you're using the "at least one" criteria, which works out to be 1-(1-.0000051)^1000 = .005 or .5% of at least one person dying in the week so your numbers are somewhat reasonable, but don't actually mean anything. E.g this is basically the birthday paradox which grows the probability quickly with the size of the set. I'll give you an example. The death rate per 1000 in Germany per year for all causes is about 11. That works out to about a 20% chance of at least one person dying in the IETF during the week from all causes including murder if we all lived in Germany. The equivalent statistic for the US is 8 per 1000 which works out to 15% for the IETF for the week. But we don't seem to be dropping at anywhere close to that rate ( e.g. A death at the meting every 5 meetings). Death probabilities are *highly* dependent on the specific populations you're looking at and actuaries get paid a lot of money to calculate them. The actual probabilities for the IETF would benefit from affluence, age, medical care, education, location, etc. Mike Sent from my iPad >> On Apr 5, 2017, at 01:56, Carsten Bormann <cabo@tzi.org> wrote: >> >> On Apr 5, 2017, at 01:06, mike stJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net> wrote: >> >> .005 deaths per week per 1000 > > Right, the 270 micromorts per year (~ 5 micromorts per week) you cited would lead to a ~ 0.5 % chance of anyone of the ~ 1000 IETFers getting killed — a factor three less than the 1.5 % that my numbers result in, but not off by a large factor. > (Still, I wonder where that factor three comes from.) > > Luckily, we hit the other 98.5 % this week. > > (I’m not that worried by the ~ 15 micromorts of risk I personally was subjected to, given that I spent on the order of 250 microlives for the time that went into this meeting. > But my wife, who had been planning our wonderful vacation in Colombia earlier this year, definitely was.) > > Grüße, Carsten >
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Carsten Bormann
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Dave Crocker
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Loa Andersson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … John Leslie
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Ted Lemon
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … joel jaeggli
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michal Krsek
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Joel M. Halpern
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … nalini.elkins
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Stewart Bryant
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Fernando Gont
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michal Krsek
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Dave Crocker
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Fernando Gont
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Christian Hopps
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … nalini.elkins
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Stephen Farrell
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Brian E Carpenter
- Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAOC re… Stephen Farrell
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Toerless Eckert
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAO… 'Toerless Eckert'
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAO… Bob Hinden
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAO… Toerless Eckert
- RE: Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAO… Tobias Gondrom
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Dave Crocker
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Ted Lemon
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Aaron Falk
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Dave Crocker
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks joel jaeggli
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Eliot Lear
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks joel jaeggli
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks Dave Crocker
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Joel M. Halpern
- Re: Structure of IETF meeting weeks (was: Re: IAO… Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Brian E Carpenter
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Eliot Lear
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Laurent Ciavaglia
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Bob Hinden
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Randy Bush
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Eliot Lear
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … tom p.
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Paul Wouters
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Ross Finlayson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Stewart Bryant
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Spencer Dawkins at IETF
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Brian E Carpenter
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- RE: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Adrian Farrel
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Christian Huitema
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Sarah B
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Behcet Sarikaya
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Brian E Carpenter
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … tom p.
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Nico Williams
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Andrew Newton
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Nico Williams
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Stephen Farrell
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Jared Mauch
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Andrew Newton
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Yoav Nir
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Carsten Bormann
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Eliot Lear
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Nico Williams
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Nico Williams
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Jared Mauch
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Melinda Shore
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … mike stJohns
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Andrew G. Malis
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Melinda Shore
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … james woodyatt
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … John Levine
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Jared Mauch
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Eliot Lear
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Carsten Bormann
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Christer Holmberg
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Dick Franks
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Carsten Bormann
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Stewart Bryant
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael Richardson
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … mike stJohns
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael StJohns
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Bob Hinden
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Michael StJohns
- RE: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Andrew Allen
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Benjamin Damm
- Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting … Nico Williams
- Re: [IAOC] IAOC requesting input on (potential) m… Leslie Daigle