Re: [Manycouches] covid forecast of a (no)wave for Summer IETF in Philadelphia, USA

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

Hi, SHMOO,

I am trying to produce a forecast for the covid wave in July in 
Philadelphia.  I am not an epidemiologist, so my forecast is only empirical.

These are the weekly notes:

For Pennsylvania state:

- it might be that a small covid wave is approaching to peak in the
   coming 4 weeks.
   The measured number of new covid cases is a bit higher, compared to
   what the 1-week forecast said one week ago.  The measure 8131 was
   made on April 16th, 2022; the forecast 5599 was made on April 9th,
   by the 1-week forecast model 'COVIDhub-ensemble' for Pennsylvania
   state.
   (the model 'MUNI-ARIMA' forecasted 8002 which is very close this
   time).
- the model 'COVIDhub-ensemble' forecasts 8130 for April 23rd.  Only on
   April 27th will we learn how right that forecast was.
- the model 'COVIDhub-4_week_ensemble' forecasts 5656 for May 7th.
- my empirical calculations (root function curve through last 4 peak
   date differences) tells May 6th to be a next peak.

For City of Philadelphia:

- my empirical calculations: the next wave peak
   could be on May 15th if fitting a linear through only the last 3 peak
   date differences, or on July 26th if fitting a parabolic curve on all
   4 differences.  Because, surprisingly, the past waves were distanced
   like this: 231, 133, 133, 133, as exhibited by the curve of
   'Positives' at this URL
 
https://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/data/testing/

- I have not found other forecasts specific to the City of Philadelphia,
   or to the Philadelphia County.

For the planner, there are some dashboards to play with hypothesis of 
lockdowns, masks promotion, vaccination, variants, waning or escape:
https://analytics-tools.shinyapps.io/covid19simulator04/
https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html

Alex

Le 15/04/2022 à 12:46, Alexandre Petrescu a écrit :
> Hi, Jason,
> 
> Le 14/04/2022 à 16:30, Livingood, Jason a écrit :
>> On 4/14/22, 07:22, "Manycouches on behalf of Alexandre Petrescu"<[e-mail] on behalf of [e-mail]>  wrote:
>>> https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/pennsylvania?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
>> I would not look at a Pennsylvania dashboard, as the state of quite large and extremely varied in local support for COVID mitigation measures & vaccination rates. As you might imagine, large metro areas tend to diverge from the rural parts of the state.
>>
>> You can find Philadelphia's stats athttps://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/data/testing/. The city is reimposing an indoor mask mandate in the next few days (though positive tests are still quite low vs. the January 2022 Omicron BA.1 surge.
> 
> Thank you for the URL.  More local data is indeed more valuable.
> 
> I might use it for my own calculations, which would be more precise, 
> would offer more confidence.
> 
>> In any case, what C19 will look like in Philadelphia or anywhere else in July 2022 is anyone's guess.
> 
> I agree it is anyone's guess; but I would not discard it, because it 
> might be the only way to try to see better.
> 
> Other than my own guess yet to be formed, there are these forecasts on 
> the Internet; their forecast for July 23rd depends on a 'model', a 
> 'certainty', and a 'scenario'.
> 
> If I were to select only the model Ensemble, certainty 95% and scenario 
> 'pessimistic but no immune variant', then their forecast of March 19th 
> says that on July 23rd the state of Pennsylvania would be right after a 
> peak of new cases.
> 
> This is the illustration from this URL 
> https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html  (the vertical date bar 
> is drawned by me):
> 
> 
> 
> Alex
> 
> 
>> Jason
>>
>>
> 
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