Re: [Manycouches] covid forecast of a (no)wave for Summer IETF in Philadelphia, USA

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

Hi, Jason,

Le 14/04/2022 à 16:30, Livingood, Jason a écrit :
> On 4/14/22, 07:22, "Manycouches on behalf of Alexandre Petrescu"<[e-mail] on behalf of [e-mail]>  wrote:
>> https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/pennsylvania?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
> I would not look at a Pennsylvania dashboard, as the state of quite large and extremely varied in local support for COVID mitigation measures & vaccination rates. As you might imagine, large metro areas tend to diverge from the rural parts of the state.
>
> You can find Philadelphia's stats athttps://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/data/testing/. The city is reimposing an indoor mask mandate in the next few days (though positive tests are still quite low vs. the January 2022 Omicron BA.1 surge.

Thank you for the URL.  More local data is indeed more valuable.

I might use it for my own calculations, which would be more precise, 
would offer more confidence.

>
> In any case, what C19 will look like in Philadelphia or anywhere else in July 2022 is anyone's guess.

I agree it is anyone's guess; but I would not discard it, because it 
might be the only way to try to see better.

Other than my own guess yet to be formed, there are these forecasts on 
the Internet; their forecast for July 23rd depends on a 'model', a 
'certainty', and a 'scenario'.

If I were to select only the model Ensemble, certainty 95% and scenario 
'pessimistic but no immune variant', then their forecast of March 19th 
says that on July 23rd the state of Pennsylvania would be right after a 
peak of new cases.

This is the illustration from this URL 
https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html  (the vertical date bar 
is drawned by me):



Alex


>
> Jason
>
>