draft-ietf-elegy-rfc8989bis-04.txt		draft-ietf-elegy-rfc8989bis-04-acee.txt
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	draft-ietf-elegy-rfc8989bis-04		draft-ietf-elegy-rfc8989bis-04
	Abstract		Abstract
	The IETF Nominating Committee (NomCom) appoints candidates to several		The IETF Nominating Committee (NomCom) appoints candidates to several
	IETF leadership committees. RFC8713 provides criteria for NomCom		IETF leadership committees. RFC8713 provides criteria for NomCom
	membership that attempt to ensure that NomCom volunteers are members		membership that attempt to ensure that NomCom volunteers are members
	of the loosely defined IETF community, by requiring in-person		of the loosely defined IETF community, by requiring in-person
	attendance in three of the past five in- person meetings. In 2020		attendance in three of the past five in-person meetings. In 2020
	and 2021, the IETF had six consecutive fully online plenary meetings		and 2021, the IETF had six consecutive fully online plenary meetings
	that drove rapid advancement in remote meeting technologies and		that drove rapid advancement in remote meeting technologies and
	procedures, including an experiment that included remote attendance		procedures, including an experiment that included remote attendance
	for NomCom eligibility. This document updates RFC8713 by defining a		for NomCom eligibility. This document updates RFC8713 by defining an
	new set of eligibility criteria from first principles, with		updated set of eligibility criteria from first principles, with
	consideration to the increased salience of remote attendance.		consideration to the increased salience of remote attendance.
	Discussion Venues		Discussion Venues
	This note is to be removed before publishing as an RFC.		This note is to be removed before publishing as an RFC.
	Source for this draft and an issue tracker can be found at		Source for this draft and an issue tracker can be found at
	https://github.com/ietf-wg-elegy/rfc8989bis.		https://github.com/ietf-wg-elegy/rfc8989bis.
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	A basic principle is that the community should govern itself, so		A basic principle is that the community should govern itself, so
	volunteers must have a demonstrated commitment to the IETF. Limiting		volunteers must have a demonstrated commitment to the IETF. Limiting
	the number of volunteers sponsored by any one organization avoids the		the number of volunteers sponsored by any one organization avoids the
	potential for mischief that disrupts IETF operations or works against		potential for mischief that disrupts IETF operations or works against
	the interests of the community as a whole.		the interests of the community as a whole.
	However, attitudes to business travel evolve, and remote meeting		However, given that attitudes toward business travel evolve and
	technology continues to improve, to the extent that many longstanding		remote meeting technology continues to improve, many longstanding
	community members choose to participate remotely. A requirement for		community members choose to participate remotely. A requirement for
	in-person attendance has always excluded some from qualification from		in-person attendance has always excluded some from qualification for
	the NomCom, due to cost or personal reasons. Further, the NomCom has		the NomCom, due to cost or personal reasons. Further, the NomCom has
	completed two cycles using entirely online tools.		completed two cycles using entirely online tools.
	Counting remote attendance lowers the barriers to entry. As the IETF		Counting remote attendance lowers the barriers to entry. As the IETF
	is committed to having a no-fee remote option		is committed to having a no-fee remote option
	([I-D.ietf-shmoo-remote-fee]) the only required investment is to log		([I-D.ietf-shmoo-remote-fee]), the only required investment is to log
	on once per meeting at a specific time (sometimes a locally		on once per meeting at a specific time (sometimes a locally
	inconvenient hour). While this document does not formally impose a		inconvenient hour). While this document does not formally impose a
	requirement for the NomCom to function entirely remotely, including		requirement for the NomCom to function entirely remotely, including
	remote-only attendees in the pool is likely to effectively require a		remote-only attendees in the pool is likely to effectively require a
	remote component to NomCom operations.		remote component to NomCom operations.
	Finally, overly restrictive criteria work against getting a broad		Finally, overly restrictive criteria work against getting a broad
	talent pool.		talent pool.
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	that to have even a 50% chance of controlling six or more NomCom		that to have even a 50% chance of controlling six or more NomCom
	positions, an attacker needs roughly 60% of the volunteer pool. For		positions, an attacker needs roughly 60% of the volunteer pool. For
	example, if there are 300 "legitimate" volunteers, an attacker must		example, if there are 300 "legitimate" volunteers, an attacker must
	produce 365 volunteers to exceed a 50% chance of NomCom capture (see		produce 365 volunteers to exceed a 50% chance of NomCom capture (see
	Appendix A).		Appendix A).
	A sudden surge in the number of volunteers, particularly of people		A sudden surge in the number of volunteers, particularly of people
	that no one recognizes as a part of the community, is an early-		that no one recognizes as a part of the community, is an early-
	warning sign for the community, leadership and the IETF Secretariat		warning sign for the community, leadership, and the IETF Secretariat
	to further investigate. The community should monitor and assess a		to further investigate. The community should monitor and assess a
	sudden increase in the number of online registration fee waivers		sudden increase in the number of online registration fee waivers
	awarded in accordance with Section 4 of [I-D.ietf-shmoo-remote-fee].		awarded in accordance with Section 4 of [I-D.ietf-shmoo-remote-fee].
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	<https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc8989>.		<https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc8989>.
	Appendix A. NomCom Capture Calculations		Appendix A. NomCom Capture Calculations
	Section 4 offers some mathematical results for the probability of		Section 4 offers some mathematical results for the probability of
	NomCom capture. This appendix shows the work.		NomCom capture. This appendix shows the work.
	Note that the number of combinations of b items chosen from a		Note that the number of combinations of b items chosen from a
	population of a item is often expressed as		population of a item is often expressed as:
	a !		a !
	binom{a}{b} = {--------------}		binom{a}{b} = {--------------}
	(a - b) ! b !		(a - b) ! b !
	Figure 1		Figure 1
	A.1. No per-organization limit		A.1. No per-organization limit
	The first computation assumes there is no limit of two per		The first computation assumes there is no limit of two per
	organization, or equivalently, no organization produces more than two		organization, or equivalently, no organization produces more than two
	volunteers.		volunteers.
	Let L be the number of "legitimate" volunteers (i.e. those not allied		Let L be the number of "legitimate" volunteers (i.e., those not allied
	with an attacker" and A be the number of attacking volunteers. Then		with an attacker) and A be the number of attacking volunteers. Then
	there are		there are
	binom{L + A}{10}		binom{L + A}{10}
	ways to select a NomCom. The number of outcomes where attackers		ways to select a NomCom. The number of outcomes where attackers
	capture the NomCom is		capture the NomCom is:
	__ 10		__ 10
	\ [binom{A}{i}binom{L}{10 - i}]		\ [binom{A}{i}binom{L}{10 - i}]
	/__ i = 6		/__ i = 6
	Figure 2		Figure 2
	and the probability of capture is therefore		and the probability of capture is therefore:
	__ 10 binom{A}{i}binom{L}{10 - i}		__ 10 binom{A}{i}binom{L}{10 - i}
	\ {---------------------------}		\ {---------------------------}
	/__ i = 6 binom{L + A}{10}		/__ i = 6 binom{L + A}{10}
	Figure 3		Figure 3
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	Assume that the population of L is drawn from L different		Assume that the population of L is drawn from L different
	organizations (this assumption is unfavorable to the attacker).		organizations (this assumption is unfavorable to the attacker).
	Assume also that there are three conspiring organizations. Then no		Assume also that there are three conspiring organizations. Then no
	more than 6 members can be drawn from A.		more than 6 members can be drawn from A.
	Let B be the number of nominees per attacking organization, so that A		Let B be the number of nominees per attacking organization, so that A
	= 3B.		= 3B.
	The number of combinations to pick exactly N attackers, N <= 6, is		The number of combinations to pick exactly N attackers, N <= 6, is:
	C(N) =
	_ _		_ _
			__ min(N, 2)|
			C(N) = binom{L}{10 - N}\ | binom{B}{i}
			/__ i = 0 |_
			_
	__ min(N, 2)| __ min(2, N - i) |		__ min(2, N - i) |
	binom{L}{10 - N}\ | binom{B}{i}\ (binom{B}{j}binom{B}{min(2, N - i - j)}) |		\ (binom{B}{j}binom{B}{min(2, N - i - j)}) |
	/__ i = 0 |_ /__ j = 0 _|		/__ j = 0 _|
	Figure 4		Figure 4
	And the probability of capture is		And the probability of capture is:
	C(6)		C(6)
	{-------------}		{-------------}
	__ 6		__ 6
	\ C(i)		\ C(i)
	/__ i = 0		/__ i = 0
	Figure 5		Figure 5