RE: IPv4

> From: Iljitsch van Beijnum [mailto:iljitsch@muada.com] 

> On 3-aug-2007, at 0:46, Hallam-Baker, Phillip wrote:
> 
> > I expect the market in IPv4 addresses to trace the following pattern
> 
> If you would have cared to quote properly and thus read the 
> previous message you'd have seen that ARIN doesn't want to 
> allow an address market. 

ARIN does not want an address market? So what? I'd like someone to give me a free Porche. Does not mean its going to happen.

> Since they are the ones 
> administering 1.5 billion of the 2.5 billion addresses given 
> out, including the legacy class A space, not much is going to 
> happen without their cooperation. 

Define 'administering'. Does ARIN have the effective legal or technical capability to revoke an address block allocation within a relevant timescale? Does ARIN have the capability to police the market and detect attempts to sell space? Methinks not.

> > Phase 2: Confusion
> > 	The immeditate reaction to exhaustion of the address 
> space will be 
> > recriminations countered by 'I told you so'. Parties with excess
> > IPv4 capacity will investigate options for sale.
> 
> It will be interesting to see what ARIN does if (for 
> instance) HP tries to sell 30 million addresses. I don't 
> think ARIN can let that happen and I don't think that HP has 
> a good case in court if ARIN subsequently takes the 
> addresses. (If they were going to sell them obviously they 
> didn't need them.)

HP forms a series of holding companies, vests the IP space with the holding companies, sells the holding companies. 

HP was allocated much of their space before there was an ARIN. 

The only effect that threats from ARIN would have in this situation is to make the situation worse. HP uses the address space internally. Transition to a different address space where they are behind a NAT has real costs for them. They are only going to make the transition if they can recover those costs.

Preventing the resale of address space might well entail an anti-trust violation. ARIN is effectively preventing HP from competing with ARIN in the sale of IP address blocks. Each of their class A addresses would cost several million dollars from ARIN. 

> What are the precedents here with phone number and address 
> renumbering?
> 
> > Phase 3: Speculation
> 
> You forget that the only people who'll have trouble are those 
> that need NEW address space. That's a relatively small 
> percentage of the internet community at any given time. And 
> 90% of them can be served from address space that is returned 
> every year. (This can be 10+ million addresses per year.)

You forget that the whale is not really a fish, it's an insect and it lives on bananas. 

Do not use the phrase 'you appear to forget' to introduce dubious claims of fact. It suggests that people disagree with you out of ignorance rather than not accepting the claim you make. In this case the claim you make is at best irrelevant.

If this were so there would not be a significant net consumption of address space. This is clearly not the case or there would be no issue and no need for IPv6 at all.

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