Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person/virtual IETF 108
Rich Kulawiec <rsk@gsp.org> Fri, 15 May 2020 10:05 UTC
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Date: Fri, 15 May 2020 06:05:22 -0400
From: Rich Kulawiec <rsk@gsp.org>
To: IETF Discussion Mailing List <ietf@ietf.org>
Subject: Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person/virtual IETF 108
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On Sat, May 09, 2020 at 11:03:39PM -0400, Phillip Hallam-Baker wrote: > No Keith, I have a different form of pessimism. I was a control engineer at > one point. We have a system with a high gain (R=5.7) and a long delay (14 > days before hospitalizations). So I expect we will be seeing oscillation > with governments announcing premature lockdown lifts followed by > re-imposition as the case load and death rate becomes unsustainable. An apt analysis, indeed. I share this pessimism and will add to it by noting that while "the vaccine" is being held out as a solution, a best case timeline for a tested-effective tested-safe vaccine has it probably 12-18 months out. That is only the beginning: we have to hope that it won't require refrigeration. We have to hope that it can be administered orally or a via a patch, that is, without syringes. We have to hope that billions of doses can be manufactured and distributed. We have to hope that an army of people are available to administer those doses. We have to hope that somehow all this gets paid for, because it's not an option to just make it available to those who can afford it. We have to hope that (a) it confers neutralizing immunity in one dose, because if it requires N doses then all the logistics above get multiplied by N and (b) that the immunity is durable enough to protect recipients for a reasonable period of time. We have to hope that as the virus mutates that it doesn't mutate into something the vaccine doesn't address. We have to hope that this all happens despite the demonstrated, sustained, profound incompetence of multiple national, state/province, and local governments which have chosen to ignore and/or suppress scientific experts. Given all this, a best case scenario is probably three years. BEST case, assuming all the things I just listed (and some that I didn't) turn out in our favor. Realistic case? I don't know. But it took a decade of massive, coordinated, funded, global effort to eradicate smallpox. (h/t to expert Laurie Garrett, who I'm borrowing from heavily.) ---rsk
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael StJohns
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Mark Nottingham
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jaap Akkerhuis
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Stewart Bryant
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Robert Raszuk
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Stewart Bryant
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael StJohns
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Ron Bonica
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… BRUNGARD, DEBORAH A
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… John C Klensin
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Joel M. Halpern
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael StJohns
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Larry Masinter
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Paul Wouters
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Robert Raszuk
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Robert Raszuk
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael Richardson
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Fernando Gont
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Randy Bush
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Carsten Bormann
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Kathleen Moriarty
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Andrew Campling
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Joel M. Halpern
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Brian E Carpenter
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael Richardson
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Brian E Carpenter
- Making future online meetings work (was:Re: Asses… John C Klensin
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Stephen Farrell
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Michael Richardson
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Michael Richardson
- Re: Making future online meetings work Keith Moore
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Jay Daley
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Mark Andrews
- Re: Making future online meetings work Keith Moore
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Alissa Cooper
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… John C Klensin
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Stewart Bryant
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… tom petch
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Tim Chown
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Carsten Bormann
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Tim Chown
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Rich Kulawiec
- Re: Making future online meetings work (was:Re: A… Michael Richardson
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Pete Resnick
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Carsten Bormann
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Pete Resnick
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Carsten Bormann
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Making future online meetings work John Levine
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Brian E Carpenter
- Re: Making future online meetings work John C Klensin
- Re: Making future online meetings work George Michaelson
- Re: Making future online meetings work John C Klensin
- Re: Making future online meetings work Kent Watsen
- Re: Making future online meetings work Vittorio Bertola
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Salz, Rich
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Michael StJohns
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Kathleen Moriarty
- Re: Making future online meetings work Salz, Rich
- Re: Making future online meetings work Keith Moore
- Re: Making future online meetings work Mark Andrews
- Re: Making future online meetings work tom petch
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Jay Daley
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Bron Gondwana
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Bron Gondwana
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- RE: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Larry Masinter
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Nick Hilliard
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Keith Moore
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Stewart Bryant
- Re: Assessment criteria for decision on in-person… Rich Kulawiec