Re: Status of the 16-bit AS Number space

Masataka Ohta <mohta@necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp> Thu, 23 April 2009 21:52 UTC

Return-Path: <mohta@necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp>
X-Original-To: ietf@core3.amsl.com
Delivered-To: ietf@core3.amsl.com
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by core3.amsl.com (Postfix) with ESMTP id 669893A6873 for <ietf@core3.amsl.com>; Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:52:30 -0700 (PDT)
X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at amsl.com
X-Spam-Flag: NO
X-Spam-Score: 3.255
X-Spam-Level: ***
X-Spam-Status: No, score=3.255 tagged_above=-999 required=5 tests=[AWL=-0.898, BAYES_50=0.001, HELO_EQ_JP=1.244, HOST_EQ_JP=1.265, RCVD_IN_NJABL_PROXY=1.643]
Received: from mail.ietf.org ([64.170.98.32]) by localhost (core3.amsl.com [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10024) with ESMTP id QA7u4ZHIdRWW for <ietf@core3.amsl.com>; Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:52:29 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp (necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp [131.112.32.132]) by core3.amsl.com (Postfix) with SMTP id 2F1A43A6AFD for <ietf@ietf.org>; Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:52:28 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (qmail 85903 invoked from network); 23 Apr 2009 23:12:27 -0000
Received: from softbank219001188013.bbtec.net (HELO necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp) (219.1.188.13) by necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp with SMTP; 23 Apr 2009 23:12:27 -0000
Message-ID: <49F0E34B.5050408@necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp>
Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 06:53:15 +0900
From: Masataka Ohta <mohta@necom830.hpcl.titech.ac.jp>
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; ja-JP; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 (ax)
X-Accept-Language: ja, en
MIME-Version: 1.0
To: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
Subject: Re: Status of the 16-bit AS Number space
References: <20090423151318.9C4529A478E@odin.smetech.net> <4A3ADB89-4B1F-4765-BE66-4AEA9D1F2C96@apnic.net>
In-Reply-To: <4A3ADB89-4B1F-4765-BE66-4AEA9D1F2C96@apnic.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Cc: ietf@ietf.org
X-BeenThere: ietf@ietf.org
X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9
Precedence: list
List-Id: IETF-Discussion <ietf.ietf.org>
List-Unsubscribe: <https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf>, <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=unsubscribe>
List-Archive: <http://www.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/ietf>
List-Post: <mailto:ietf@ietf.org>
List-Help: <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=help>
List-Subscribe: <https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/ietf>, <mailto:ietf-request@ietf.org?subject=subscribe>
X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:52:30 -0000

Geoff Huston wrote:

> You, and the community, may find these two AS number use reports  helpful.

It's quite interesting to see the lack of scalability of multihoming
by routing is destroying the Internet.

> The first, http://www.potaroo.net/tools/asn16/ looks at the levels of  
> consumption of the 16 bit AS number space and makes some predications,  
> based on curve fitting to recent usage data, as to the anticipated  
> lifetime of this number pool.

According to http://bgp.potaroo.net/as2.0/bgp-active.html, most ASes
are used with /24 prefixes seemingly for punching holes.

It's not surprising that 32-bit AS space will exhaust in near future
just like 32-bit address space is exhausting and the only solution
is to deply end-to-end scalable multihoming AND restrict top level
aggregator space, both of which IPv6 failed to do.

							Masataka Ohta