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Re: NomCom selection Fwd: Notification for draft-eastlake-rfc3797bis-00.txt

Donald Eastlake <d3e3e3@gmail.com> Tue, 09 May 2023 01:03 UTC

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From: Donald Eastlake <d3e3e3@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 08 May 2023 21:03:20 -0400
Message-ID: <CAF4+nEH9Jtk1gacbyNf7_arfWa2erpADF4oKmCsFaw9nDs_uSw@mail.gmail.com>
Subject: Re: NomCom selection Fwd: Notification for draft-eastlake-rfc3797bis-00.txt
To: sarikaya@ieee.org
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On Mon, May 8, 2023 at 11:45 AM Behcet Sarikaya <sarikaya2012@gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> ...
>
>
> I have been attending IETF for 10+ years, fully registered and almost
> always completely attending  but I have been in nomcom 0, yes zero times as
> a voting member, I think that the algorithm is useless at least for me.
>

The number of volunteers is a bit different every time but has been
growing. 200 is probably a reasonable guess going forward. 10 people are
selected. So, if you volunteer, any particular year the probability you
will be selected is 5% and the probability you will not be selected is
95%.  Assuming you volunteer every year, the probability of not being
selected in 10 years is 0.95**10 or ~59.9% so the most common case, if you
volunteer for 10 years, is that you will not be selected. For 20 years,
it's 0,95**20 the probability of not being selected is down to about 35.8%
or a bit more than 1/3. For 30 years, it would be 0.95**30 or 21.5%. But
you're sure to be selected if you keep trying long enough. For 100 years,
the probability of not being selected is less than 1%. Etc.

Maybe we need a mechanism to try to eliminate repeat selections somehow, my
> friend Don, this is for you.
>

Maybe.

Thanks,
Donald
===============================
 Donald E. Eastlake 3rd   +1-508-333-2270 (cell)
 2386 Panoramic Circle, Apopka, FL 32703 USA
 d3e3e3@gmail.com


> Behcet
>
>> --
>> Michael Richardson <mcr+IETF@sandelman.ca>   . o O ( IPv6 IøT consulting
>> )
>>            Sandelman Software Works Inc, Ottawa and Worldwide
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>

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