Re: List of volunteers for the 2020-2021 NomCom

[Michael StJohns <[e-mail]>]

Sorry - I screwed up badly.  Cut and pasted the wrong values for the 
function.  The actual numbers are :

=BINOMDIST (number of selectees [0-10], number of slots [10], percent of 
pool [n/160], FALSE (non cumulative)) - this is the probability of 
getting exactly the number of selectees, given the number of tries 
(slots) and how large your group is relative to the pool size.

Cisco - 13 - 8.1% of pool, 37.9% of having exactly 1 , 19.3% of having 2 
(sum of 2-10 selectees).
Ericsson - 6 - 3.8%, 26.6,5.2
Futurewei - 10 - 6.3%, 35, 12.6
Google - 4 - 2.5% 19.9, 2.5
Huawei - 28 - 17.5%, 31/54.4
Juniper - 10 - 6.3%, 35, 12.6
Mozilla - 3 - 1.9% , 15.8, 1.4
Nokia - 3 - 1.9%, 15.8, 1.4
ZTE  - 6 3.8%, 26.6, 5.2

(Huawei + Futurewei)  23.8% 20.7, 72.7

Abject apologies.  And thanks for John's note that made me go back and 
check.   I'll revise my email to Toerless with new values shortly.

John - For Huawei + Futurewei, the entire row looks like:


	Number of Nomcom Members 	
Percent of Volunteer Pool 	0 	1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	10 	>= 2 	>=1
23.8% 	6.6% 	20.7% 	29.0% 	24.1% 	13.1% 	4.9% 	1.3% 	0.2% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	72.7% 	93.4%


The >= 2 is the sum of 2-10 columns .   Leading to the MM >> NN.  
Basically, you've got 10 tries to get 2 or more selectees.  So any 
result from 2-10 represents 2 actual selectees.

Note that the BINOMDIST function does the calculation with replacement 
so there is some slight upward bias.

Mike

On 6/30/2020 12:12 AM, Michael StJohns wrote:
> Taking only the groups with 3 or more volunteers you get:
>
> Cisco - 13 - 8.1% of the pool - 24.2% chance of having 1, 65.6% of 2
> Ericsson - 6 -   3.8% of the pool 37.5/26.9
> Futurewei - 10 - 6.3% of pool 31.5/51.5
> Google - 4  2.5% 34.9/14.6
> Huawei - 28 17.5%  3.2/95.9
> Juniper - 10  6.3% 31.5/51.5
> Mozilla - 3 1.9%, 30.9, 9.1
> Nokia - 3  1.9%  30.9/9.1
> ZTE - 6 - 3.8% 37.5/26.9
>
> (Huawei + Future Wei ) 23.8% .6/95.6
>
> Using the current model, Huawei with 17.5% of the pool has only a (100 
> - 95.9 - 3.2)  .6% chance of having no volunteers selected, a 3.2% 
> chance of having 1, and a 95.9% chance of having 2.   If Futurewei and 
> Huawei are counted as separate companies, together they have about a 
> 50% chance of having 4 members between them (estimate rather than 
> doing the calculations).
>
> Cisco and Juniper each have more than a 50/50 chance of having two 
> members and a >80% chance of having at least one each.