Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast

[Rex Buddenberg <[e-mail]>]

Alex

All cellphone technologies 3G and earlier were point-point, non-
routable systems. The generational changes incorporated improvements in
transmission, not switching. Circuit switch; plugged into the PSTN
(public switched telephone network).

LTE, by contrast, is a routable network segment. Packet switch. It's
plugged into the internet, not the PSTN.  This is a one-time big deal
change; the transmission did indeed change (OFDM) but the migration to
routable packet switch is more significant.
     The ballooning in internet apps occurred once cellphones became
internet nodes rather than dial-up telephones that happened to use
wireless links.

b

On Thu, 2021-12-30 at 11:06 +0100, Alexandre Petrescu wrote:
> Thank you very much!  I will refer to the table you posted.
> 
> Indeed the stds show a slower growth in generations.  By it, one
> could
> expect the first 6G specs published and approved (term?) at 3GPP
> maybe
> in 2032.  Because of this sequence of first specs at 3GPP: 1999 3G,
> 2008 
> 4G, 2019 5G.
> 
> This is indeed different than my speculation of dates of various
> deployment announcements - very approximative, based on personal
> rememberings.  That says 6G and 7G would be trialled before 2030,
> following an acceleration between generations.  It might be wrong.
> 
> Also, a little detail about what happened between 2G and 3G, when
> 3GPP
> did not exist.  I think 3GPP specified indeed 3G, but not 2.5G (GPRS,
> EDGE).  I think these were specified by ETSI.  If true, I am looking
> for
> ETSI dates of publication of first 2G, GPRS and EDGE standards.  Just
> for information.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Le 28/12/2021 à 10:32, [e-mail] a écrit :
> > 
> > Bonjour Alexandre,
> > 
> > For a more accurate forecast, you should consider standard
> > releases 
> > (3GPP/IUT) rather than announced commercial rollouts (for which
> > some
> > of them were kind of “fake news”, i.e. claiming being 4G whereas it
> > was only 3G+, same for 5G).
> > 
> > For 3GPP, it is important to check the exact content of each
> > release.
> > 
> > Here is a brief summary for 3GPP:
> > 
> > 5G
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 16
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2020-07-03 (SA#88-e)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Phase 2
> > 
> > Release 15
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2019-03-22 (SA#83)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Phase 1 (New radio and http-based core)
> > 
> > 4G
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 14
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2017-03-10 (SA#75)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 13
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2015-12-11 (SA#70)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 12
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2014-09-17 (SA#65)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 11
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2012-09-12 (SA#57)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 10
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2011-03-23 (SA#51)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 9
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2009-12-10 (SA#46)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 8
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2008-12-11 (SA#42)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > New radio and new Diameter core
> > 
> > 3G
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 7
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2007-03-15 (SA#35)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 6
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2005-03-17 (SA#27)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 5
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2002-03-14 (SA-#15)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Introduction of SIP-based IP Multimedia system
> > 
> > Release 4
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 2001-03-22 (SA-#11)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 2000
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Release 1999
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 1999-12-17 (SA-#6)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > UMTS
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 1999-02-12 (SMG-#28)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > New Radio
> > 
> > Therefore, you can see that there are:
> > 
> > 9 years between 3G and 4G
> > 
> > 11 years between 4G and 5G
> > 
> > What is true is that discussions on the next generation start
> > sooner
> > and sooner generation after generation.
> > 
> > My2Cts,
> > 
> > Lionel
> > 
> > Orange Restricted
> > 
> > *De :* 6gip <[e-mail]> *De la part de* Alexandre
> > Petrescu *Envoyé :* lundi 27 décembre 2021 21:04 *À :* [e-mail]
> > g 
> > *Objet :* [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast
> > 
> > Hi, 6GIP,
> > 
> > I did recently a small research of when the various generations
> > (2G,
> > 3G, etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to
> > make a forecast.
> > 
> > 2G - 1991, operator Radiolinja in Finland
> > 
> > 3G - 2005, operator Tre ('3') in Italy
> > 
> > 4G - 2015, various operators such as SFR and Orange in France
> > 
> > 5G - 2020, operator SFR in France
> > 
> > (the precise dates, places and status of deployment, such as trial
> > or
> >  public, are approximate and indeed debatable).
> > 
> > By this logic, it seems there is an acceleration between
> > generations.
> >  The difference between generations was: 14 years, 10 years, 5
> > years.
> > 
> > The forecast is that 6G would be expected earlier than 2025, and
> > 7G 
> > before 2030.
> > 
> > What do you think?
> > 
> > Alex
> > 
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