Re: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast

[[e-mail]]

Bonjour Alexandre,

For a more accurate forecast, you should consider standard releases (3GPP/IUT) rather than announced commercial rollouts (for which some of them were kind of "fake news", i.e. claiming being 4G whereas it was only 3G+, same for 5G).

For 3GPP, it is important to check the exact content of each release.

Here is a brief summary for 3GPP:

5G

Release 16

2020-07-03 (SA#88-e)

Phase 2

Release 15

2019-03-22 (SA#83)

Phase 1 (New radio and http-based core)

4G

Release 14

2017-03-10 (SA#75)



Release 13

2015-12-11 (SA#70)



Release 12

2014-09-17 (SA#65)



Release 11

2012-09-12 (SA#57)



Release 10

2011-03-23 (SA#51)



Release 9

2009-12-10 (SA#46)



Release 8

2008-12-11 (SA#42)

New radio and new Diameter core

3G

Release 7

2007-03-15 (SA#35)



Release 6

2005-03-17 (SA#27)



Release 5

2002-03-14 (SA-#15)

Introduction of SIP-based IP Multimedia system

Release 4

2001-03-22 (SA-#11)



Release 2000



Release 1999

1999-12-17 (SA-#6)



UMTS

1999-02-12 (SMG-#28)

New Radio


Therefore, you can see that there are:
9 years between 3G and 4G
11 years between 4G and 5G

What is true is that discussions on the next generation start sooner and sooner generation after generation.

My2Cts,

Lionel



Orange Restricted
De : 6gip <[e-mail]> De la part de Alexandre Petrescu
Envoyé : lundi 27 décembre 2021 21:04
À : [e-mail]
Objet : [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast


Hi, 6GIP,

I did recently a small research of when the various generations (2G, 3G, etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to make a forecast.

2G - 1991, operator Radiolinja in Finland

3G - 2005, operator Tre ('3') in Italy

4G - 2015, various operators such as SFR and Orange in France

5G - 2020, operator SFR in France

(the precise dates, places and status of deployment, such as trial or public, are approximate and indeed debatable).

By this logic, it seems there is an acceleration between generations.  The difference between generations was: 14 years, 10 years, 5 years.

The forecast is that 6G would be expected earlier than 2025, and 7G before 2030.

What do you think?

Alex

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ce message et ses pieces jointes peuvent contenir des informations confidentielles ou privilegiees et ne doivent donc
pas etre diffuses, exploites ou copies sans autorisation. Si vous avez recu ce message par erreur, veuillez le signaler
a l'expediteur et le detruire ainsi que les pieces jointes. Les messages electroniques etant susceptibles d'alteration,
Orange decline toute responsabilite si ce message a ete altere, deforme ou falsifie. Merci.

This message and its attachments may contain confidential or privileged information that may be protected by law;
they should not be distributed, used or copied without authorisation.
If you have received this email in error, please notify the sender and delete this message and its attachments.
As emails may be altered, Orange is not liable for messages that have been modified, changed or falsified.
Thank you.