RE: 10 years and no ubiquitous security

[Alex Alten <[e-mail]>]

Sigh.  I knew I shouldn't have put a dollar figure in my response.

Michael you have to take those reports with a grain of salt, dollar
amounts tend to be meaningless.  At the risk of getting nailed here's
how I did my math.  Red Creek last year shipped about 1% of the hw
IPsec VPN boxes worldwide.  They were bought for about $10M (if I
remember correctly).  Thus implicitly valuing all the firms, divisions
of firms, etc., at about $1B.  Generally speaking in a growth industry
you pay about 5x revenues.  So this means the industry last year
probably had about $200M in revenues. I may be off a bit, maybe its
$300M, but that's about how much money is being paid by real customers
per year.  It's not a huge market, at least not based on my back-of-
the-envelope calculations.  If I'm wrong then I'm sure one of your
marketing guys can correct me with more accurate numbers.

- Alex

At 07:56 PM 3/18/2002 -0800, Michael Choung Shieh wrote:
>
>FYI.  Dedicated VPN HW Hits $1.3 Billion as shown at
>http://www.infonetics.com/resources/quarterly_worldwide_market_share_forecas
>ts_4q01.htm  It has a sizeable installation out there, though it does have
>some large deployment issues.
>
>Michael Shieh
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Alex Alten [mailto:[e-mail]]
>Sent: Monday, March 18, 2002 5:26 PM
>To: Steven M. Bellovin; William Allen Simpson
>Cc: [e-mail]; [e-mail]
>Subject: Re: 10 years and no ubiquitous security 
>
>[... skip...]
>
> It seems to have decided, IPsec has settled into a fairly modest
>VPN market niche ($200M/yr revenues or so?). It is not turned on by
>(or not available on) at least 99% of the Internet hosts.
>
>[... skip....]
>
>- Alex
>
>
>--
>
>Alex Alten
>[e-mail]
>
--

Alex Alten
[e-mail]