Re: [v6ops] IPv4 trajectory

[Ca By <[e-mail]>]

On Tuesday, March 31, 2015, Fred Baker (fred) <[e-mail]> wrote:

>
> > On Mar 31, 2015, at 5:11 PM, Brian E Carpenter <
> [e-mail] <javascript:;>> wrote:
> >
> > 5. Therefore, migrate IPv4 support to run over IPv6.
>
> Again, if you want the carrier’s logic, ask the carrier. But to me, that
> doesn’t follow.
>
> Not all core carriers, but a significant number of them, don’t think of
> themselves as carrying IPv4 or IPv6 per se. They think of themselves as
> MPLS houses, using jumboframes so that the addition of that header to
> whatever their payload happens to be (aka IPv4 or IPv6) doesn’t have an MTU
> problem. Whatever comes in, they throw it into the right tunnel (aka LSP)
> to get it to the right egress, MPLS gets it there, and it goes out the
> other door.
>
> You’re arguing about what kind of tunnel they should use. They’re quite
> happy with the one they have, and it’s neither IPv4 nor IPv6.
>

I am not a dfz network operator, but my network has an ipv4 control plane
that is rfc 1918 and only visible to the control plane, for the most
part.  My guess is that most dfz providers are not properly dual-stack,
they are using 6pe or 6vpe.

The forwaring plane is mpls. Full stop.

There is no pressure to ever change the composition of the backbone since
the backbone itself is not scaling quickly in terms of ip address usage.

It is only the edges that scale and sees address pressure: eyeballs, sensor
/ things , cdn, compute ....

So there is no forcing function turning ipv4 off...

Except percentage of 'high value' ipv4 traffic will go down, but dfz routes
will go up. So, this will create an interesting conflict as dfz ipv4 routes
go up, costs go up to support + 1m routes, ddos junk traffic goes up
...ultimately in 5 years the ipv4 dfz will be mostly ddos related udp with
1m+ routes while the ipv6 dfz relatively well aggregated and ddos free (no
win xp, no super legacy cpe, ...)

Knocking on wood the ipv6 stays as clean as it is today.  But, the rate of
decay of 'high value' ipv4 traffic is extreme. Watch this space.  IPv4 is
becoming worse than the back row on $airline

CB