Re: [Ntp] Antwort: Re: New Version Notification for draft-gruessing-ntp-ntpv5-requirements-03.txt

[Doug Arnold <[e-mail]>]

Unless you are a member of the IERS, you don’t decide whether there is going to be a negative leap second or not.  I suggest that the rest of us focus on making sure that our products, or open source projects can handle a negative leap second.

All the more reason to make TAI the default timescale for NTPv5.

Doug

From: ntp <[e-mail]> on behalf of [e-mail] <[e-mail]>
Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 2:52 PM
To: James <[e-mail]>
Cc: NTP WG <[e-mail]>, Hal Murray <[e-mail]>, Danny Mayer <[e-mail]>
Subject: [Ntp] Antwort: Re: New Version Notification for draft-gruessing-ntp-ntpv5-requirements-03.txt
Yeah, sorry, I forgot to add that these weren't idle fears.
The earth rotation does appear to be speeding up right now, it is just a bit unclear whether or not it will *keep* doing it long enough for that negative leap second to become necessary.
If it does, it seems to also be uncertain whether the planned change will come in time to prevent it from being a thing operators have to deal with (since, as I said, the change likely won't be this decade).


Kristof

-----"James" <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>> schrieb: -----
An: "Danny Mayer" <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>>
Von: "James" <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>>
Datum: 21.10.2021 17:52
Kopie: [e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>, "Hal Murray" <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>>, "NTP WG" <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>>
Betreff: Re: [Ntp] New Version Notification for draft-gruessing-ntp-ntpv5-requirements-03.txt


As was reported earlier this year [1]:

> Peter Whibberley, senior research scientist with National Physical Laboratory’s time and frequency group, said: “It is certainly correct that the Earth is spinning faster now than at any time in the last 50 years.
> ...
> The World Radiocommunication Conference will decide on the fate of the leap second in 2023.
> ...
> Global warming will also have an effect by melting ice and snow at higher elevations, causing the Earth to spin faster, although only by a small amount.

I’d be curious to know if there are any data that contradicts the NPL’s position regarding rotation speed or the other parts of that article.

- J

1: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/04/earth-spinning-faster-now-time-past-half-century/



On 21 Oct 2021, at 17:29, Danny Mayer <[e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]>> wrote:
On 10/21/21 7:59 AM, [e-mail]<mailto:[e-mail]> wrote:
I only have second-hand insight, really.
What I gather is that there is a growing fear of a situation similar to the Y2K bug scare, because it is predicted that (for the first time I believe) there could soon be a negative leap second and time sync appliances might just fail in the face of having to deal with that.
I will try to get better info, in particular quantifying chances and timeframe.
The only way that is likely to happen is if the earth rotation speeds up, which is extremely unlikely. The only ways that I can think of that happening would be either a volcano about to spew enough energy in the right direction and an asteroid hitting the earth with a glancing blow. Either would be catastrophic. It would be better to not remove a leapsecond and just wait for the next time a positive leapsecond adjustment is needed.
Danny

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