Re: List of volunteers for the 2021-2022 NomCom

[Michael StJohns <[e-mail]>]

On 6/27/2021 9:21 PM, John C Klensin wrote:
> Mike, while I completely agree, I am also thinking about how
> much bigger we would need to make the pool to overcome the
> number of volunteers from that company, i.e., to make their
> fraction of the volunteers small enough relative to the total to
> significantly reduce the chances of their ending up with two
> Nomcom members.


Here's the table.  If you have 10% of the pool, you have a 65% chance of 
having at least 1 member, and a 26.4% chance of having 2.   That's a 
pool of 410 people given 41 volunteers from a single group.

Given 41 volunteers from a single group, you'd have to have something 
like 612 volunteers to get below a 50% chance of 1 member or more. (e.g. 
about 6.7% of the pool).

Note, the values in the table don't change based on total volunteers, 
only on proportion of the volunteer pool.  Making the pool larger and 
keeping the proportions of the components the same will not materially 
change the results.

The current model is biased to select most of the Nomcom from larger 
organizations.   You'd probably need to move to a 2 stage model to 
change the bias.


	Number of Nomcom Members 	
Percent of Volunteer Pool 	0 	1 	2 	3 	4 	5 	6 	7 	8 	9 	10 	>= 2 	>=1
1.0% 	90.4% 	9.1% 	0.4% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.4% 	9.6%
5.0% 	59.9% 	31.5% 	7.5% 	1.0% 	0.1% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
	8.6% 	40.1%
10.0% 	34.9% 	38.7% 	19.4% 	5.7% 	1.1% 	0.1% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	26.4% 	65.1%
15.0% 	19.7% 	34.7% 	27.6% 	13.0% 	4.0% 	0.8% 	0.1% 	0.0% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	45.6% 	80.3%
20.0% 	10.7% 	26.8% 	30.2% 	20.1% 	8.8% 	2.6% 	0.6% 	0.1% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	62.4% 	89.3%
25.0% 	5.6% 	18.8% 	28.2% 	25.0% 	14.6% 	5.8% 	1.6% 	0.3% 	0.0% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	75.6% 	94.4%
30.0% 	2.8% 	12.1% 	23.3% 	26.7% 	20.0% 	10.3% 	3.7% 	0.9% 	0.1% 	0.0% 
0.0% 	85.1% 	97.2%
35.0% 	1.3% 	7.2% 	17.6% 	25.2% 	23.8% 	15.4% 	6.9% 	2.1% 	0.4% 	0.1% 
0.0% 	91.4% 	98.7%