Re: [113attendees] IETF 113 Update: 2022-02-10

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

I continue this discussion in the SHMOO WG email list.

Alex

Le 08/04/2022 à 22:48, Alexandre Petrescu a écrit :
> There are these many forecasting curves in USA at this URLs, but they 
> predict only for the next 4 weeks or so.
> 
> https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/
> 
> Rather, I look for a 3-month forecast of new cases, for Philadelphia. In 
> particular, to learn whether or not Philadelphia at the end of July is 
> on a descent, a low, or on an ascent of the wave.  In a most desired 
> case, it would be on a descent or a low.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Le 05/04/2022 à 13:50, Alexandre Petrescu a écrit :
>>
>>
>> Le 18/02/2022 à 19:31, John C Klensin a écrit :
>>> Alex,
>>>
>>> I won't repeat my previous comment about being able to
>>> accurately produce the future.  Translating them into more
>>> statistical terms, those are issues about predictive models
>>> given unpredictable issues that can introduce near-step
>>> functions (e.g., appearance of new variants with new properties)
>>> and exogenous variates that are not part of the model.  But, if
>>> you are working with R to try to build a predictive model, two
>>> suggestions:
>>>
>>> (1) You probably do not want to interpolate.  Think about some
>>> sort of regression or other curve-fitting procedure, perhaps
>>> with moving averages.  You would need to figure out whether you
>>> have enough data to make that meaningful.
>>>
>>> (2) Once you have a predictive model with which you are happy,
>>> please try doing some predictions of accuracy (not just
>>> projected values), probably using a retrospective sensitivity
>>> testing approach.   In other words, set the most recent data
>>> aside, repeat the analysis, and then see how well the model
>>> would have predicted those recent data.
>>>
>>> I can't speak for others, but I look forward to a report on what
>>> you discover.
>>
>> I keep working on it.
>>
>> This is what I discovered for now.
>>
>> - there are no publicly available data predicting covid waves, or I 
>> cant find.  It might be impossible to predict the next wave.
>>
>> The one prediction I learned of at IETF is at 
>> https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/COVID-Prognose-Konsortium-2022.html#februar-2022 
>>
>> It is a short-term estimation on the current wave form, not a 
>> prediction on a long term of waves.  This short-term estimation can be 
>> done rapidly on Excel tool of Microsoft.
>>
>> - a colleague indicated in private that what I am trying to predict 
>> (the time of the peek of a next wave) might be akin to 'machine 
>> learning'. That is such a huge topic that I wouldnt delve into, but I 
>> am open to collaborating.
>>
>> - I learned to agree that, as you suggsted, what I need is a sort of 
>> 'regression', or a 'curve-fitting' procedure, rather than 
>> 'interpolation'.  The 'R' open source software package has a plethora 
>> of these functions to call, and my calculators have some simpler too.
>>
>> - a very naïve (sorry!) applying of some of the simplest of these 
>> 'regressions' on the few available data, seems to be showing to me 
>> that, locally, the frequency of waves might be increasing, i.e. a 
>> little more peeks per year.  It is not about dangerosity of covid, but 
>> about how many peaks.
>>
>> - I am looking retrospecitvely at how meeting planning happened 
>> between Nov. 2021 and March 2022, and whether predicting the next wave 
>> of covid was of any help whatsoever, or not.  In that time period 
>> several predictions about covid evolution were made, and a few 
>> surprises shown up.  I wouldnt have expected the covid wave to be on a 
>> rise in Vienna at the end of March - it was a surprise.
>>
>> - for me personally, this kind of longer term prediction of the time 
>> of a next wave of covid is very important to answer daily life - both 
>> at work and at home - questions in planning for next few months.
>>
>> That's what I discovered for now.
>>
>> Alex
>>
>>
>>>
>>>     john
>>>
>>> p.s. there is a famous story about the use of a System Dynamics
>>> model to predict, based on 19th Century data, the traffic in
>>> Paris would be almost completely paralyzed by the middle of the
>>> 20th.   You might find it informative vis-a-vis the type of
>>> projections you are trying to make.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --On Friday, February 18, 2022 18:51 +0100 Alexandre Petrescu
>>> <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Thanks for the note about the R script.
>>>>
>>>> I would like to say a few things about it, if permitted on
>>>> this list.
>>>>
>>>> I think you mean the R mathematics package, and not the R like
>>>> in R_0 of epidemics.  I think I saw R on my windows.
>>>>
>>>> For the R mathematics package, I wonder whether they have a
>>>> freely available function to interpolate very simply, maybe
>>>> too naïvely, but still a valuable try when nothing else might
>>>> be available.
>>>>
>>>> This could be used to predict the next peak of a wave.
>>>>
>>>> For example, given the sequence of distances between Austrian
>>>> peaks 8, 4, 8, 3 (from outbreak.info), what is the next
>>>> distance until the next peak?
>>>>
>>>> That potential R interpolation function, applied to that
>>>> Austrian data, could be valuable help in predicting more
>>>> precisely than the current predictions that can be visible at
>>>> https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus
>>>> /COVID-Prognose-Konsortium-2022.html#februar-2022
>>>>
>>>> The ICU Intensivpflege graph gives today a prognosis for March
>>>> 2nd, as illustrated by the small gray areas at the right of
>>>> the graph:
>>>> Kapazitätsvorschau Intensivpflege - 15.02.2022
>>>>
>>>> But a prediction by applying an R interpolation function on
>>>> the sequence 8,4,8,3 would give a prediction of when the next
>>>> peak would appear in the next several months.
>>>>
>>>> Probably this would predict that the next peak would be in 7
>>>> months time (I dont know?), which means peak in August 2022.
>>>> August is much far away than March.
>>>>
>>>> This kind of prognosis does not tell the details of the wave
>>>> shape, but just its peak.  But it is known that these are
>>>> waves, not arbitrary shapes.
>>>>
>>>> Alex
>>>>
>>>> Le 18/02/2022 à 07:41, Dr Eberhard W Lisse a écrit :
>>>>> Jay,
>>>>>
>>>>> Your approach is the correct one from a medical perspective
>>>>> and the same I am taking.
>>>>>
>>>>> I took the additional step of separating my flight to Europe
>>>>> from the flight (ticket) to Vienna, the former with Ethiopian
>>>>> Airlines who are very experienced with Covid and have given
>>>>> us no trouble when we had to reschedule some visitors doe to
>>>>> Omicron.  The latter is with Austrian Airlines and so cheap
>>>>> that if the meeting was cancelled and the airline were to
>>>>> prove difficult (which I doubt) I could absorb the loss.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> That said, one must indeed differentiate between the pure
>>>>> transmission rate which in Austria is quite, and in Namibia
>>>>> and New Zealand for example is low (but rising in the
>>>>> latter), the hospital utilization rate, the ICU utilization
>>>>> rate and of course the death rate.
>>>>>
>>>>> The death rate in countries with developed health care
>>>>> systems is fortunately quite low due to a multitude of
>>>>> factors including the experience we have gained over the last
>>>>> two years, and easy accessibility to care.
>>>>>
>>>>> The rolling 7 day (new infection) incidence averaged per
>>>>> 100000 is the traditional way of looking at, and comparing
>>>>> it.  The Johns Hopkins University publishes a continuously
>>>>> updated data set which is widely used and I have a little R
>>>>> script which produces the enclosed images (for some countries
>>>>> I am interested in).
>>>>>
>>>>> For planning purposes the hospital utilization and ICU rates
>>>>> are better figures and this is what is now being used more
>>>>> commonly like in Austria.
>>>>>
>>>>> In addition there is indeed the pressure by the populace who
>>>>> are fed up with the intrusions into what they perceive as
>>>>> personal freedom and who believe their health care systems
>>>>> can take care of them if they get it, in particular
>>>>> vaccination breakthroughs which are perceived as usually
>>>>> being mild.
>>>>>
>>>>> I can understand to a (very) small extend the former, but
>>>>> most certainly do not agree with it, and leave aside whether
>>>>> the latter is true (probably) and at what cost.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Now, what does that mean for travelers?
>>>>>
>>>>> There still is high transmission in Austria, so the risk of
>>>>> contracting Covid is a reality.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> That is what needs to be considered when traveling back to a
>>>>> country where health care is less developed/available.
>>>>> Never mind that the airlines may deny boarding of infected
>>>>> passengers, so one should cater for that, as well.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I, myself, will continue to abide strictly by masking,
>>>>> disinfection, and social distancing.  And I assume/propose
>>>>> that the ground rules of the meeting reflect that, such as
>>>>> checker board seating, temperature taking at the entrance and
>>>>> requiring the (correct) wearing of masks.
>>>>>
>>>>> I, myself, will not do daily testing, unless of course asked
>>>>> to do so by the organizers, but as I want to see how the
>>>>> Everybody Gargles process works (it is free, after all), I'll
>>>>> do it on the day of arrival and (perhaps) the morning of
>>>>> departure.
>>>>>
>>>>> greetings, el
>>>>>
>>>>> On 2022-02-17 23:53 , Jay Daley wrote:
>>>>>>> On 18/02/2022, at 10:35 AM, Carsten Bormann <[e-mail]>
>>>>>>> wrote: On 17.  Feb 2022, at 19:57, Jay Daley
>>>>>>> <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The good news that may encourage people to book, as others
>>>>>>>> have already noted, is that the rules in Austria change
>>>>>>>> from 5 March.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Good news?  I'm not so sure.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> It seems the previous carefully designed science-based
>>>>>>> prevention regimes are being thrown to a populistic bonfire
>>>>>>> of "freedom day" paroles.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> This mass delusion may make traveling and meeting in person
>>>>>>> way too dangerous again.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I'm registered for onsite, and I don't have all the
>>>>>>> data yet, but at the moment everything looks like I'll
>>>>>>> have to reconsider.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> While there is indeed considerable political pressure to
>>>>>> open up, my reading is that these decisions are still being
>>>>>> made on a rational basis.  It appears clear that omicron
>>>>>> waves in a well vaccinated society are relatively fast, burn
>>>>>> themselves out and result in relatively few deaths or
>>>>>> serious injuries with the majority having mild symptoms at
>>>>>> the most.  Austria's omicron wave started on
>>>>>> approximately 1 Jan and peaked on approximately 2 Feb.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On the basis of that risk assessment and taking into account
>>>>>> that I am in a risk group because of my medical history, I
>>>>>> am participating in person .  (The meeting would function
>>>>>> just as well without me). Of course each of our
>>>>>> circumstances and personal risk assessments are different so
>>>>>> we all make our own decisions here and I respect anyone who
>>>>>> chooses not to travel for theirs.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Jay
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>