Re: [113attendees] IETF 113 Update: 2022-02-10

[Dr Eberhard W Lisse <[e-mail]>]

Jay,

Your approach is the correct one from a medical perspective and the
same I am taking.

I took the additional step of separating my flight to Europe from the
flight (ticket) to Vienna, the former with Ethiopian Airlines who are
very experienced with Covid and have given us no trouble when we had to
reschedule some visitors doe to Omicron.  The latter is with Austrian
Airlines and so cheap that if the meeting was cancelled and the airline
were to prove difficult (which I doubt) I could absorb the loss.


That said, one must indeed differentiate between the pure transmission
rate which in Austria is quite, and in Namibia and New Zealand for
example is low (but rising in the latter), the hospital utilization rate,
the ICU utilization rate and of course the death rate.

The death rate in countries with developed health care systems is
fortunately quite low due to a multitude of factors including the
experience we have gained over the last two years, and easy accessibility
to care.

The rolling 7 day (new infection) incidence averaged per 100000 is the
traditional way of looking at, and comparing it.  The Johns Hopkins
University publishes a continuously updated data set which is widely used
and I have a little R script which produces the enclosed images (for
some countries I am interested in).

For planning purposes the hospital utilization and ICU rates are better
figures and this is what is now being used more commonly like in
Austria.

In addition there is indeed the pressure by the populace who are fed up
with the intrusions into what they perceive as personal freedom and who
believe their health care systems can take care of them if they get it,
in particular vaccination breakthroughs which are perceived as usually
being mild.

I can understand to a (very) small extend the former, but most certainly
do not agree with it, and leave aside whether the latter is true
(probably) and at what cost.


Now, what does that mean for travelers?

There still is high transmission in Austria, so the risk of contracting
Covid is a reality.


That is what needs to be considered when traveling back to a country
where health care is less developed/available.  Never mind that the
airlines may deny boarding of infected passengers, so one should cater
for that, as well.


I, myself, will continue to abide strictly by masking, disinfection, and
social distancing.  And I assume/propose that the ground rules of the
meeting reflect that, such as checker board seating, temperature taking
at the entrance and requiring the (correct) wearing of masks.

I, myself, will not do daily testing, unless of course asked to do so by
the organizers, but as I want to see how the Everybody Gargles process
works (it is free, after all), I'll do it on the day of arrival and
(perhaps) the morning of departure.

greetings, el

On 2022-02-17 23:53 , Jay Daley wrote:
>> On 18/02/2022, at 10:35 AM, Carsten Bormann <[e-mail]> wrote:
>> On 17.  Feb 2022, at 19:57, Jay Daley <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>>
>>> The good news that may encourage people to book, as others have
>>> already noted, is that the rules in Austria change from 5 March.
>>
>> Good news?  I’m not so sure.
>>
>> It seems the previous carefully designed science-based prevention
>> regimes are being thrown to a populistic bonfire of “freedom day”
>> paroles.
>>
>> This mass delusion may make traveling and meeting in person way too
>> dangerous again.
>>
>> I’m registered for onsite, and I don’t have all the data yet, but at
>> the moment everything looks like I’ll have to reconsider.
>>
> 
> While there is indeed considerable political pressure to open up, my
> reading is that these decisions are still being made on a rational
> basis.  It appears clear that omicron waves in a well vaccinated
> society are relatively fast, burn themselves out and result in
> relatively few deaths or serious injuries with the majority having
> mild symptoms at the most.  Austria’s omicron wave started on
> approximately 1 Jan and peaked on approximately 2 Feb.
> 
> On the basis of that risk assessment and taking into account that I am
> in a risk group because of my medical history, I am participating in
> person .  (The meeting would function just as well without me).  Of
> course each of our circumstances and personal risk assessments are
> different so we all make our own decisions here and I respect anyone
> who chooses not to travel for theirs.
> 
> Jay
> 

-- 
Dr Eberhard W Lisse
Managing Director
Namibian Network Information Center (Pty) Ltd.
PO Box 8421 Bachbrecht 10007 Namibia
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