Re: [113attendees] IETF 113 Update: 2022-02-10

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

Thanks for the message to all,

Le 18/02/2022 à 07:41, Dr Eberhard W Lisse a écrit :
[...]

> For planning purposes the hospital utilization and ICU rates are
> better figures and this is what is now being used more commonly like
> in Austria.

In France they just said that it is the ICU numbers (not
hospitalisations, not cases; ICU==Intensive Care Unit, aka 'réa') that
would dictate when to remove masks and related measures.  They propose a
threshold of 1000-2000 ICU; this threshold is facing the current state
of 3000ish ICUs, which was around 3500ish in last month, for France
population 65m.  When the 3500 becomes 1000-2000 then masks would be
removed.

However, I would take this proposal of ICU threshold carefully.

In the recent past they also said that the threshold whould be the case
number to trigger measures.  The threshold proposed was around 4000
cases to trigger a whole new level of measures.  But when that number
peaked 30000 it was way too much, and at 500.000 all initial plan was
negated.  By the initial logic we would have had to be in complete
lockdown, but no.

Probably this idea of threshold of ICU should be factored by the variant
identifier, i.e. the threshold is ICU 1234 dominated by variant BA.2.

[...]

> There still is high transmission in Austria, so the risk of
> contracting Covid is a reality.

Yes, it is not because we cry victory that victory there is.  Crying
victory might attract victory, but.

Additionally,

It is good to consider not only Austria, but the countries where people
come from.

If each traveller is safely isolated during travel, but less isolated
during the IETF meeting, then it is necessary to consider the IETF
meeting as a place of sum of places where people come from.  The waves
of originating countries are crossbreeding at Vienna.


> That is what needs to be considered when traveling back to a country 
> where health care is less developed/available.  Never mind that the 
> airlines may deny boarding of infected passengers, so one should
> cater for that, as well.
> 
> 
> I, myself, will continue to abide strictly by masking, disinfection,
> and social distancing.  And I assume/propose that the ground rules of
> the meeting reflect that, such as checker board seating, temperature
> taking at the entrance and requiring the (correct) wearing of masks.
> 
> I, myself, will not do daily testing, unless of course asked to do so
> by the organizers, but as I want to see how the Everybody Gargles
> process works (it is free, after all), I'll do it on the day of
> arrival and (perhaps) the morning of departure.

I think too that these kinds of mechanical protections are best.

But I wonder what about vaccinating?

It might be that not only PCR and distancing to be no longer required at
Vienna by end of March, but the vaccination neither.

The EMA press conf of yesterday (17 february) still does not say
something affirmative about 4th dose for the general public.

But it says (https://youtu.be/W9HPf0PJda0?t=144) that EMA considers, not
decided yet, reducing the time from 2nd dose to 3rd dose to 3 month.

If the time from 2nd dose to 3rd dose is 3 month, then I the non-medical
person, suppose the same 3 month would be between 3rd dose and 4th dose
too.  Is this supposition appropriate?

My 3rd dose was in December 2021, so the 4th would need to be in March,
prior to Vienna.

In that EMA press conference (https://youtu.be/W9HPf0PJda0?t=211) it is
said:
- 2nd booster? not enough information, need more info to understand
effect of current vaccination, the impact of 4th dose where it was applied.
- EMA talks about a 'preprint' with Israel results that could be a
starting point to analyse.  I dont know which paper.

But I heard of another recent medrxiv paper which seems to be saying 4th
dose is good
(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.15.22270948v1).  There
is also a video from Israel as early as January, which says 4th dose is
good - https://youtu.be/71viRng-k8g
But today it is also told that Israel removes 'pass' requirements, so no
more vaccination requirement in Israel, presumably.

I dont know what to think about vaccination.

Alex

> 
> greetings, el
> 
> On 2022-02-17 23:53 , Jay Daley wrote:
>>> On 18/02/2022, at 10:35 AM, Carsten Bormann <[e-mail]>
>>> wrote: On 17.  Feb 2022, at 19:57, Jay Daley
>>> <[e-mail]> wrote:
>>>> 
>>>> The good news that may encourage people to book, as others
>>>> have already noted, is that the rules in Austria change from 5
>>>> March.
>>> 
>>> Good news?  I’m not so sure.
>>> 
>>> It seems the previous carefully designed science-based
>>> prevention regimes are being thrown to a populistic bonfire of
>>> “freedom day” paroles.
>>> 
>>> This mass delusion may make traveling and meeting in person way
>>> too dangerous again.
>>> 
>>> I’m registered for onsite, and I don’t have all the data yet, but
>>> at the moment everything looks like I’ll have to reconsider.
>>> 
>> 
>> While there is indeed considerable political pressure to open up,
>> my reading is that these decisions are still being made on a
>> rational basis.  It appears clear that omicron waves in a well
>> vaccinated society are relatively fast, burn themselves out and
>> result in relatively few deaths or serious injuries with the
>> majority having mild symptoms at the most.  Austria’s omicron wave
>> started on approximately 1 Jan and peaked on approximately 2 Feb.
>> 
>> On the basis of that risk assessment and taking into account that I
>> am in a risk group because of my medical history, I am
>> participating in person .  (The meeting would function just as well
>> without me).  Of course each of our circumstances and personal risk
>> assessments are different so we all make our own decisions here and
>> I respect anyone who chooses not to travel for theirs.
>> 
>> Jay
>> 
> 
>