Re: risk zones

[Alexandre Petrescu <[e-mail]>]

Well, no ad hominem.

For data points: new cases in China downed cca. 500-100 in recent month 
but up 100-130 in recent days.  It's hard to predict.

Alex

Le 06/03/2020 à 15:58, Phillip Hallam-Baker a écrit :
> I just watched an idiot government spokesperson try to tell us the 
> problem is declining because new cases are 'down in China'.
> 
> Yes, of course they are down in China, the government put the country on 
> a war footing and shut it down. There are pictures of workmen welding 
> shut the doors on apartment buildings. The lockdown is almost total, of 
> course the spread of infection has declined there.
> 
> That has absolutely no effect on the spread in the West where we have 
> taken none of those measures. We haven't even shut down large public 
> meetings like sports events and concerts yet. And don't expect that to 
> be happening in countries where the first priority of the dear leader is 
> to hold large public rallies to boost their egos
> 
> There is a huge amount of happy talk based on nonsense right now. A half 
> dozen companies have announced vaccines. But making a vaccine is really 
> easy, all you do is scoop out a bit of the virus. The hard part, the 
> really hard part is working out if the bit of the virus you scooped out 
> is the right bit to provide protection. Most times it doesn't actually 
> have any effect at all. Sometimes it makes people more likely to be 
> infected and sometimes it kills the test subjects. So you have to test 
> and that takes time.
> 
> The way that authoritarian regimes react to crisis is very predictable. 
> First they deny that there is any problem at all. Then they minimize the 
> problem and then they panic and over-react. China followed that exact 
> pattern.
> 
> The West currently has a large number of aspiring authoritarian leaders 
> but few actual authoritarian regimes. So we are stuck in stage two and 
> will remain stuck there for a considerable time..
> 
> 
> On Fri, Mar 6, 2020 at 6:50 AM Joseph Potvin <[e-mail] 
> <mailto:[e-mail]>> wrote:
> 
>     RE: The communication coming from up to down is changing daily.
> 
>     A pragmatic view of uncertainty:
>     https://wiki.opensource.org/bin/download/Working+Groups+%26+Incubator+Projects/flow-syllabus/The+General+Direction+of+FLOW/The+Methodological+Significance+of+Uncertainty/WebHome/uncertainty_visualize_medium.png
> 
>     Joseph Potvin
>