Re: IETF in July

[Carsten Bormann <[e-mail]>]

On 2020-03-23, at 18:03, Michael StJohns <[e-mail]> wrote:
> 
> math

Let’s assume that the “flatten the curve” logic will stay the dominant one.
(Actually, let’s hope so, as there will be millions of deaths otherwise.)

Germany has a population of ~ 80 millions.
We have about 25000 ICU beds, maybe up to 35000 within a month or two.
(I’m ignoring that there are other diseases, which I probably shouldn’t.
I’m also ignoring that the personnel situation has been dire even before CoViD-19.)

As an extremely rough estimation, 15 % of the infected population will need a hospital bed, for about 7 days each, most of it in intensive care.  So that’s very roughly 1 ICU day per infected.

We’ll need 50 million or so for herd immunity.  Pushing these through the hospitals at 35000/day (dangerous!  Better stay below that) will take 1400 days.  This is an order of magnitude, so let’s just say 500 days, because we are optimistic, and the one ICU day per person statistic may be contaminated by undiagnosed infections.  

So we are talking about a year, not a month or a couple of weeks.

We can’t really turn down isolation measures significantly while this is happening.
If R0 does get a little better in summer (there are some reasons to believe that), we might keep 35000/day with a little less isolation, but will need to go back in autumn.

Obviously, we will learn something over time, and we could get an order of magnitude better over that time (or find an outright cure).  Or not.  Hope is not a strategy.

Adjust these numbers for lesser health care systems.  You know who that would be.

In summary, there are three scenarios:

(1) miracle.  We learn something very significant (effective cure, protection).  Not plannable.

(2) disaster.  Millions die, but, hey, the survivors will see the sun again within a couple of months.

(3) flatten the curve.  A year or so, until we have a combination of herd immunity and a vaccine.

I’m hoping for 1 and planning for 3.  Organizing 3 will be the giant task for all of us now.

Grüße, Carsten