Re: IETF in July

[Fernando Gont <[e-mail]>]

On 23/3/20 12:47, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ wrote:
> It all depends on how smart are our governments. If they seriously 
> confine the people, we will get to normal earlier. 

It's not just government. It's government + people. And for obvious 
reason, that's a distributed problem that is non-trivial to address.



> The economic impact will be much lower for all. 

Lockdown implies that the economy is essentially stopped. I don't think 
we'll have less than 1-month lockdown. And where it hasn't started, 
it'll get worse (peeking at current flights might me an unfortunate of 
spread, even at larger scale. e.g., as of today, there seem to be 
flights virtually everywhere: https://www.flightradar24.com/-



> If a country decides to ignore that, then is fine to avoid travelers from that country.

Are you assuming that Spain will ban countries if they don't react 
according to some standards? On what basis?




> I’m not saying that until there is an efficient vaccine, we will get 0 
> impact with more Covid19 infections, but not at the level that we 
> congest our health systems and disallow traveling.

This is what we have at the time of this writing. And I understand that 
we do protocols, not epidemiology.



> Doing that more than 
> a couple of months will be really bad for every economy, supply chains 
> and that means citizens. We can’t (and must not) stop the world.

It seems that what WHO et al are advocating is "stay home", except for 
essential services (normally food, health, fuel, security/police, high 
ranks at government, and not a lot more)



> We must get to normal as fast as we can, and the only way is 
> confinement. I was not believing on that originally, but now it is clear 
> to me.

We don't control this. And the number of flights on 
https://www.flightradar24.com/ suggests that people don't even stay in 
their cities. Unless lockdown is *enforced*, you're just "hoping".



[...]
> Despite that, I still think we are talking about this too early. I think 
> we need to wait until around May-June. 

That implies that people should wait till about a month before the IETF 
to make the necessary arrangements. Besides, that not only implies that 
the crazyness is over (I wished, but I'm not that optimistic), but also 
that individuals and companies gor their own stuff in order to be 
allowed/able to travel to e.g. attend a meeting. Not to mention that 
with all the cancellations that have occurred (and that probably will 
for some time), when flights get back to "normal", demand and prices 
might be interesting.

As much as I would like this crazyness to be over, I can't be as 
optimistic as you.

Thanks,
-- 
Fernando Gont
SI6 Networks
e-mail: [e-mail]
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