Re: IETF in July
JORDI PALET MARTINEZ <jordi.palet@consulintel.es> Mon, 23 March 2020 18:18 UTC
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Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 19:18:30 +0100
Subject: Re: IETF in July
From: JORDI PALET MARTINEZ <jordi.palet@consulintel.es>
To: ietf@ietf.org
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Thread-Topic: IETF in July
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I think we need to be optimistic and that the effort being done by many researchers all over the world will provide results in a record time. I keep reading news of different clinical trials even with existing pharmaceutic products such as Tocilizumab. I'm sure we will make it! El 23/3/20 18:52, "ietf en nombre de Carsten Bormann" <ietf-bounces@ietf.org en nombre de cabo@tzi.org> escribió: On 2020-03-23, at 18:03, Michael StJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net> wrote: > > math Let’s assume that the “flatten the curve” logic will stay the dominant one. (Actually, let’s hope so, as there will be millions of deaths otherwise.) Germany has a population of ~ 80 millions. We have about 25000 ICU beds, maybe up to 35000 within a month or two. (I’m ignoring that there are other diseases, which I probably shouldn’t. I’m also ignoring that the personnel situation has been dire even before CoViD-19.) As an extremely rough estimation, 15 % of the infected population will need a hospital bed, for about 7 days each, most of it in intensive care. So that’s very roughly 1 ICU day per infected. We’ll need 50 million or so for herd immunity. Pushing these through the hospitals at 35000/day (dangerous! Better stay below that) will take 1400 days. This is an order of magnitude, so let’s just say 500 days, because we are optimistic, and the one ICU day per person statistic may be contaminated by undiagnosed infections. So we are talking about a year, not a month or a couple of weeks. We can’t really turn down isolation measures significantly while this is happening. If R0 does get a little better in summer (there are some reasons to believe that), we might keep 35000/day with a little less isolation, but will need to go back in autumn. Obviously, we will learn something over time, and we could get an order of magnitude better over that time (or find an outright cure). Or not. Hope is not a strategy. Adjust these numbers for lesser health care systems. You know who that would be. In summary, there are three scenarios: (1) miracle. We learn something very significant (effective cure, protection). Not plannable. (2) disaster. Millions die, but, hey, the survivors will see the sun again within a couple of months. (3) flatten the curve. A year or so, until we have a combination of herd immunity and a vaccine. I’m hoping for 1 and planning for 3. Organizing 3 will be the giant task for all of us now. Grüße, Carsten ********************************************** IPv4 is over Are you ready for the new Internet ? http://www.theipv6company.com The IPv6 Company This electronic message contains information which may be privileged or confidential. The information is intended to be for the exclusive use of the individual(s) named above and further non-explicilty authorized disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this information, even if partially, including attached files, is strictly prohibited and will be considered a criminal offense. If you are not the intended recipient be aware that any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this information, even if partially, including attached files, is strictly prohibited, will be considered a criminal offense, so you must reply to the original sender to inform about this communication and delete it.
- IETF in July Ron Bonica
- Re: IETF in July Jared Mauch
- Re: IETF in July Keith Moore
- Re: IETF in July Carsten Bormann
- Re: IETF in July Kathleen Moriarty
- Re: IETF in July Fred Baker
- Re: IETF in July Job Snijders
- Re: IETF in July Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: IETF in July Tim Wicinski
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July Robert Raszuk
- Re: IETF in July Ole Jacobsen
- Re: IETF in July Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July Carsten Bormann
- Re: IETF in July Adam Roach
- Re: IETF in July Victor Kuarsingh
- Re: IETF in July Stewart Bryant
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July Bob Hinden
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July Michael StJohns
- Re: IETF in July Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July Carsten Bormann
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July JORDI PALET MARTINEZ
- Re: IETF in July Adam Roach
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July Salz, Rich
- Re: IETF in July Michael Speer
- Re: IETF in July Alissa Cooper
- Re: IETF in July Michael Richardson
- Re: IETF in July Toerless Eckert
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July John Levine
- Re: IETF in July John C Klensin
- Re: IETF in July Brian E Carpenter
- Re: IETF in July Ross Finlayson
- Re: IETF in July Pete Resnick
- Re: IETF in July Toerless Eckert
- Re: IETF in July Toerless Eckert
- Re: IETF in July Toerless Eckert
- Re: IETF in July Randy Presuhn
- Re: IETF in July Fernando Gont
- Re: IETF in July Clint Chaplin
- Re: IETF in July Rich Kulawiec
- RE: IETF in July Maisonneuve, Julien (Nokia - FR/Paris-Saclay)
- Re: IETF in July Phillip Hallam-Baker
- Re: IETF in July Rich Kulawiec
- Re: IETF in July John Scudder
- Re: IETF in July Michael Richardson
- Re: IETF in July Brian E Carpenter
- Re: IETF in July Christer Holmberg
- Re: IETF in July Bajpai, Vaibhav