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Re: IETF in July

Adam Roach <adam@nostrum.com> Mon, 23 March 2020 18:22 UTC

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Subject: Re: IETF in July
To: Carsten Bormann <cabo@tzi.org>, Michael StJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net>
Cc: ietf@ietf.org
References: <DM6PR05MB63488A5D5D14D11CBF145CEBAEF50@DM6PR05MB6348.namprd05.prod.outlook.com> <2E3DFE67-85D0-4259-85D5-09FF9A262B48@tzi.org> <B28C7981-1AF4-4299-AAA0-4ABA667D81B4@consulintel.es> <CAOj+MMHROy2UA7YUdRrTM240nQY4ykbYHtFME87FPznNDMdcUQ@mail.gmail.com> <0B0BBC48-1504-4847-85B1-36700873D78E@consulintel.es> <5134FD38-F675-4E81-8C57-1EBCBE475705@tzi.org> <37205051-dab1-d59e-5fb2-fbcef327302b@nostrum.com> <CAJc3aaMFdyYxeX_6bZCmOJ8q8KBaHYmV79N70O85dHZ3AWUcaA@mail.gmail.com> <50BB2CE9-DEFC-4269-8FDC-ACA708FC5BE5@gmail.com> <0E824A81-B9ED-485C-9183-84C17CECFD88@consulintel.es> <CA5E598A-4A07-4DDD-9D23-B1E85018B17D@gmail.com> <8e16f641-08b0-8234-d9c5-f18637198369@comcast.net> <AB8D558C-4210-4A58-9055-976EFE235409@tzi.org>
From: Adam Roach <adam@nostrum.com>
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Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:22:14 -0500
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On 3/23/2020 12:48 PM, Carsten Bormann wrote:
> In summary, there are three scenarios:
>
> (1) miracle.  We learn something very significant (effective cure, protection).  Not plannable.
>
> (2) disaster.  Millions die, but, hey, the survivors will see the sun again within a couple of months.
>
> (3) flatten the curve.  A year or so, until we have a combination of herd immunity and a vaccine.


I'm trying to avoid getting too far off into the weeds, but there's a 
fourth option that carries a fair amount of hope for doing this in 
single-digit months instead of double-digit months (but I don't think 
"four months" is inside even the most optimistic envelope). I'll just 
drop a couple of links here instead of trying to summarize the argument 
itself beyond: we need to start aggressive, mandatory, and repeated 
testing of apparently healthy individuals.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/23/mass-testing-is-only-sustainable-solution/


/a

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