Re: [v6ops] Operational Consensus on deployment

[Ca By <[e-mail]>]

On Aug 4, 2014 8:44 PM, "Ca By" <[e-mail]> wrote:
>
> Allow me to posit that the locus of internet growth is cloud, IoT, and
mobile. Growth areas are important because they drive ip address demand.
Public IPv4 as a unique host ID is dead and will never be used natively in
these high growth edge networks.
>
> Cloud is near 100% nat, the public address is abstracted from the host.
Look at AWS, they dont have a product that gives machines a public ip
address from AWS of any sort at any cost. It is all NAT.  My guess and
Azure and Google are similar, but i dont know.
>
> IoT -- simply cant scale on ipv4.
>
> Mobile -- always has been ipv4 nat in most places, and now approaching
all places.
>
> Even in old world DSL broadband like AT&T DSL, layer 2.75 is private ipv4
that moves the 6RD end to end on top.
>
> The bigger question is -- who thinks real  public dual-stack on every
node is viable for the timescale the ietf or edge network engineering
operates at?  Not T-Mobile US, not facebook, not at&t , not Amazon AWS, not
Terastream. All these networks run at least 1 stack virtually (or
relayed/proxied) and i doubt they see a path to real dual-stack.
>
> The better ietf i-d i would like to read is a post-mortem on why
dual-stack failed in edge networks and what the ietf can learn from this
failure.  It likely has an economic and psychological theme.
>
> Don't get me wrong, the utopian dream of everyone turning ipv6 on over
some period of time and ipv4 slipping off unnoticed into the sunset is
great... But clearly just a dream. It did not and will not happen.
>
> The history of ipv6 transition will not involve a distinct period of time
where a public ipv4 and ipv6 dual-stack internet happened.
>
> CB

Obligatory cross domain reference, although my wife says this theory is
bogus and gets angry when i bring it up

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punctuated_equilibrium