Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting cities

mike stJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net> Tue, 04 April 2017 23:06 UTC

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Subject: Re: IAOC requesting input on (potential) meeting cities
From: mike stJohns <mstjohns@comcast.net>
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Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2017 19:06:20 -0400
Cc: Andrew Newton <andy@hxr.us>, IETF <ietf@ietf.org>, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ <jordi.palet@consulintel.es>
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To: Carsten Bormann <cabo@tzi.org>
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Carsten, you're off by very large factor.   The Chicago murder rate reported last year was 27 deaths per 100000 for the entire year.   That works out to be about .5 deaths per week per 100000 or .005 deaths per week per 1000( the number of people attending the IETF) Or .0005% of the IETF population for the week we were there.  

I'm doing this math in my head while having a glass of wine so it's possible I've dropped or added a zero or two but it is definitely not 1.5%.   It's worse than it should be, but it's irresponsible to suggest that the level of risk was that high.  

Mike

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> On Apr 4, 2017, at 17:12, Carsten Bormann <cabo@tzi.org> wrote:
> 
>> On Apr 4, 2017, at 20:43, Andrew Newton <andy@hxr.us> wrote:
>> 
>> In my opinion, statistics will better inform this discussion.
> 
> Statistics is useful for reasoning about stable countries.
> 
> (It may also be useful to remember that the US is unsafe beyond its borders.
> Chicago has the murder rate Colombia had in 2013, before the peace process fully set in.
> Statistically, the chance of any IETFer being killed last week was about 1.5 %.)
> 
> Grüße, Carsten
>