Re: [v6ops] reclassify 464XLAT as standard instead of info

[Lee Howard <[e-mail]>]

On 9/22/17, 12:10 PM, "Gert Doering" <[e-mail]> wrote:

>Hi,
>
>On Fri, Sep 22, 2017 at 10:52:10AM -0400, Lee Howard wrote:
>> Following adoption curves:
>>  The majority of hits on Google US will be IPv6 in six months.
>>  80% of hits on Google US will be IPv6 in two and a half years.
>>  90% of hits on Google US will be IPv6 in three and a half years.
>>  The majority of hits on Google worldwide will be IPv6 in two years.
>>  80% of hits on Google worldwide will be IPv6 in four years.
>>  90% of hits on Google worldwide will be IPv6 in five years.
>> 
>>https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/project.php?metric=p&timeforward=2000&t
>>im
>> ebackward=2064&country=ww
>
>I like your optimism :-)

It’s evergreen.

>
>But then, I look at mobile operators in Germany - the *incumbent* has
>done their homework and is providing IPv6, but the "new kids on the block"
>mobile operators (like, "younger, agile", and all this) are not even
>having 
>*plans* for IPv6 yet...

I wonder if 5G will include native IPv4.

Because I was replying to this message, I paused to publish this blog post
about who would have the most impact on IPv6 deployment. It’s specific to
the US (because worldwide numbers aren’t readily available) but it could
be repeated for any other country.
http://www.wleecoyote.com/blog/whomatters.htm

In Germany, you’re looking for Vodafone, TDDE Telefonica, Digital Ocean,
EWE, MNET, Linode, Telecolobus, and O2. Then it’s a long tail of smaller
networks. I just ran the numbers, and 76% of Germans without IPv6 are
behind Liberty Global, Kabel Deustchland, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom,
and Vodafone. Since DTAG, KD, and LGI have great deployments, I checked:
Telefonica alone has 26% of IPv6-incapable users, and Vodafone 16%.

Network Size		Pct of IPv6-incapable Germans

 
 
  100K-1M			76%
 
 
  10K-100K		16%
 
 
  1K-10K			6%
 
 
  <1K			2%



>
>
>And this is only eyeball networks.
>
>Right now, there's so much *content* IPv4-only that eyeball networks need
>to put up CGN boxes to enable reachability to that content - and if these
>boxes are in place anyway, what incentives does content have to enable
>IPv6?  Looking at the Alexa Top sites, I see lots of red on Eric's
>page.  Basically, everything that's not Google or happens to sit behind
>Cloudflare (for DE)... :-(

If 99% of eyeball hardware runs IPv6, then we look more to NAT64 than to
464xlat. And in the U.S., (according to that blog post), AWS and Akamai
operate about 25% of the IPv6-incapable domains in the Top 1000.

I don’t mean to say that we don’t need transition mechanisms. Transition
mechanisms are the way networks can move to IPv6-only [1] at different
rates.


Lee

[1] For low values of “only"



>
>Gert Doering
>        -- NetMaster
>-- 
>have you enabled IPv6 on something today...?
>
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